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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (2922)	4/19/2013 2:11:15 PM
From: bruwin	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4719

"Maybe we can evaluate our picking strategy and see where we went wrong." One of the possible positive aspects and results arising from the current state of the 'SI Top 10' could be the interrogation that members may want to carry out on why they were enthusiastic about their stock picks, at the time, and on what basis and according to what criteria they made their choices. Individual members can now see the outcomes of their choices in terms of the "why's and wherefore's". We also have the advantage of "hindsight" and we may want to put that to constructively good use to possibly modify or revise our stock selection criteria. AAPL has, up until now, been one of our major disappointments and loss makers. If I look back I was one who was positive about the stock at the time based, to a large extent, on its fundamentals. However, I've now come to my own conclusion that Apple's success was very largely centred around Steve Jobs. He was the one who had the vision to look ahead and conclude what would find great attraction and enthusiasm in the communication market place. He also had the ability to know how to package and put that product together such that it would find an immediate and immense following. As a result, when one of his Presentations and unveiling of his latest Apple product was imminent, the stock price was already gaining momentum because the public could be about 99% sure that Jobs invariably came up with a winner that was a step ahead of his nearest rivals. Unfortunately, there's no Jobs at Apple now. All that the company can do is manage their current products. Yes, maybe they'll do something here, or do something there, but I'd say that the previous "Apple fan club" has lost a certain amount of that old faith with regard to the company's ability to be, and remain, ahead of the pack. At the current time Apple has Tim Cook at the helm. He was a loyal, hard working and able right hand man to Jobs. But, IMO, he doesn't have that "Job's brilliance". That is something you're born with. Either you have it or you don't. It's not something you can be taught at Harvard or Colombia. I would say that individuals such as Gates, Bezos and Dell have it, and they used it to go from nothing to world wide. I read that folk comment that Apple's price has hit a new low, or its P/E is down, or book value is advantageous, or some other factor that puts it at a favourable "Buy". One also reads that it has a lot of cash on its books. Yes, that may be the case, but what's it doing with that cash ? Should some of it not be going into productive and innovative R&D ? Probably the answer should be "Yes", .... but then who is there within Apple to be close to a Job's innovative capability and would know where to best direct that R&D ? And what else could that cash be used for ? Some will say, the purchase of companies to add to the Apple stable and enhance their position and ability within the market place. I suppose, "Yes" as well, .... but who is going to decide what company will best accompany Apple 's next major winner, .... and why. So, .... in my humble opinion, I'd say that at the present time one would be throwing good money after bad buying Apple stock. IMO, Apple will need to show that it can still deliver the goods if it wants to regain that enthusiastic support from its fans and previous investors. That's just the nature of the Market that it's in. Having said all that, I still hope (due to loyalty and admiration for the late Steve Jobs) that I'm proved Very Wrong .....