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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bart13 who wrote (100223)	4/20/2013 11:54:52 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218805

Trend of GDP growth and the need to refigure it: say that China natural rate of growth is: 4.5% given the hardship to generate healthy economic activity. This is the natural size of China's growth. This 4.5% may be very difficult of the Politburo to communicate to the Chinese population. Thus the figures have to be show a slow gracious return to its natural size. chinadaily.com.cn and if we look closely at how growth was distributed in 2012 we might get a better sense of how hard it is to generate healthy economic activity. While some of the sell-side economists still insist that China’s growth remained high and healthy enough, in fact among independent economists who specialize in the Chinese economy, both among Chinese and foreign economists there has been growing skepticism. A consensus is developing that China grew by less that 7.8% in 2012. For example Stephen Green at Standard Chartered, one of my favorites of the sell-side economists, refigured his numbers and guesses that instead of 9.3% for 2011 and 7.8% for 2012 (the official numbers), actual growth might have been 7.2% for 2011 and 5.5% for 2012. Other economists are suggesting even lower numbers, closer to zero. mpettis.com

To: bart13 who wrote (100223)	4/21/2013 2:30:47 AM
From: elmatador	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218805

Reading the FAO Food Price Index Chart. Second half of the 90s, started climbing as a result of two factors: USSR dismantling and increase of incomes in Asia. By 96 it reached the new plateau. Asian melt down destroyed incomes in Asia and prices went even below historic trends. By mid first decade, 2004, the emerging markets (where most of the mouths are) debts have been paid (as a result of AG printing com gusto, incomes started rising in emerging markets worldwide. Prices went above historical trend. Dropped back as a result of 2008 financial crisis. Climbed again and now is reaching the new trend line and will stay there. You can see the Arab Springs in this chart: the yellow line climbs, post 2007, Arab Springs started in food importing countries arid regions of North Africa as the Asians bid the food prices up. Index track 5 food commodities, meat, dairy, cereal, oils and fats, sugar fao.org