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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (2938)	4/20/2013 10:23:58 PM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4719

I would avoid IBM. Even though Buffet likes it and owns a lot of stock, I think it is just an accounting issue waiting to happen. The very low (3%?) to nothing topline growth does not square with the consistent bottom like growth we have been seeing for many years. The service business that is driving IBM is tricky from an accounting perspective, since those LT service contracts with accrual accounting leave so much leeway to manipulate earning numbers. I am sure WEB looked at the numbers carefully, still I would feel uncomfortable being long this stock.

To: Sergio H who wrote (2938)	4/21/2013 6:40:08 AM
From: bruwin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4719

” ... I don't think AAPL is going out of biz anytime soon.” I certainly hope that I didn’t give the impression that I believed Apple is going out of business anytime soon, because that’s not something that I’d say is AT ALL likely to happen. The point that I was trying to make was that there are those who may have taken certain fundamental and technical parameters into account and assumed that because certain factors, relative values, price targets etc.., had been reached or breached, that there were times when Apple stock was now relatively cheap and it had become a time to Buy. From a pricing point of view that was very likely heard when AAPL was between $550 and $600, or at ~$500, or between $425 and $440, or at ~$400. Unfortunately the price just kept trending downwards. Based on our Portfolio’s rules we bought more AAPL on 19 Feb.’13. Since then its price has declined by over 15% in 3 months. From a financial reporting perspective, AAPL has, in recent times, reported the best Quarterly, in terms of Gross Revenue, in its Q1, so that’s been much of a given. However, if we look at AAPL’s Q2,Q3 and Q4 during 2011 compared to 2012, in terms of Revenue, it appears that the 2011 period was a better year than 2012 in terms of increases in that Revenue component of its Income Statement. 2012 seemed to reflect a decline in top line Revenue, whereas 2011 showed more of the opposite. Maybe I’m reading too much into that, but it could very well be as a result of other major players beginning to gain greater market share, combined with Apple not being able to counter that because of a possible loss of confidence in their past ability to deliver the goods via the likes of a Steve Jobs. No doubt the time will come when AAPL will truly bottom out. When that is, IMO, is anybody’s guess. Let’s hope that it’s not that far away. It can’t be a comfort to AAPL investors to see their price gain (and capital gain) wiped out and sitting where it was back in July 2011. Yes, one has only really lost when one has sold, because otherwise it's just on paper. In the meantime, I look forward to your comments and analyses regarding DIS and ROC. They've certainly done very well to date ....