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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (2656)	12/5/1997 9:09:00 AM
From: Kapusta Kid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78585

Jeffrey, you should get familiar with the Michael Burke thread. Mike is really in touch with the chip business and had been predicting the decline for months. Unfortunately, his PC died and he hasn't posted in a couple of weeks (no <g>). I just read an article (in Barron's ??) about Cable Modems. I believe it was the 3COM article. My cable company is Cablevision, which hasn't announced availability of that service locally (central NJ). What is the additional cost of the cable service and the modem??? Pete

To: jeffbas who wrote (2656)	12/5/1997 1:23:00 PM
From: Stewart Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78585

Jeffery, Thanks for the compliment. I see two simple trends. The first is that GaAs (galium arsenide) technology companies have better long term growth prospects (operation at higher speeds), and experience less dramatic changes in demand due to their exclusivity. Smaller companies involved in this area include Vitesse (VTSS), Anadigics (ANAD) and Triquint (TQNT). The second trend is toward more highly integrated chips ("System-on-a-chip"). Inevitable because it reduces cost of product so dramatically. I think that it may take some time to actually become popular because of the engineering skills required (perhaps picking up toward the end of 1998). LSI Logic (LSI) is well positioned in this area. If I recall correctly, VLSI Technology (VLSI) also has some technology. Toshiba & some other large Japanese companies are also heavily involved. I don't see any pure Graham-style value plays at this point, but I haven't really been looking hard. I have very little experience with regard to accurately timing the market. You may be able to look for a pickup in the EDA vendor Synopsis' (SNPS) market should system-on-a-chip take off. Stew