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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (51408)	4/24/2013 11:35:35 AM
From: AFed	2 Recommendations Respond to of 78476

(AAPL) The only 6.0x FCF, non-buggy whip stock I've ever seen people more bearish on is Wells Fargo in 1991, and that was levered 10:1. Time shall tell whether that's peak cash flow, but it's quite obvious the margin downshift is due to mix (4/4s growth internationally and iPad Mini globally) and revenue is due to the "lull before the storm" of new product unveilings in the Fall. Personally, it would be nice to see AAPL go below $300/sh, then the BoD could do a 4.0x levered recap issuing debt at 5%. Anyway, one can dream...

To: Spekulatius who wrote (51408)	4/24/2013 11:36:21 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

You might be right about AAPL - the future is competitive and unknowable. However, we are currently seeing a market pile-up into consumer staples stocks where future is "knowable". So although I'd love to buy KO and future-KO's cheaply, there are pretty much three possibilities now: 1. buy tech and/or cyclicals which are unpredictable and may drop more from here 2. buy (hold) increasingly overpriced "stable" companies 3. get out of the market Yeah, this is extremely macro view and exceptions exist, but overall that's where we are now and unless something changes, this is going to continue, since people continue to pile into "safe dividend stocks". I think I'm doing all three in moderation, but 1 much more than 2 and 3. Disclosure: I have AAPL position. No plans to add at current price. Might add if it drops to $350.