SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alighieri who wrote (712323)4/29/2013 10:45:37 AM
From: TimF  Respond to of 1571169
 
Exactly. They still have slower growth. 2.2% (or 1.6% if your only considering debt to GDP ratios above 120%) is less than 4.2%.

--

Reinhart and Rogoff respond
by Tyler Cowen on April 16, 2013 at 4:50 pm in Economics | Permalink

I knew something would come quickly, though this is quicker than I had expected. Via Matt Yglesias:
We literally just received this draft comment, and will review it in due course. On a cursory look, it seems that that Herndon Ash and Pollen also find lower growth when debt is over 90% (they find 0-30 debt/GDP, 4.2% growth; 30-60, 3.1 %; 60-90, 3.2%,; 90-120, 2.4% and over 120, 1.6%).
marginalrevolution.com

---

The error is embarrassing, and the actual data is less dramatic, but it still supports the overall conclusion that heavy levels of government debt are bad for economic growth.

The corrected data show growth