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Technology Stocks : NTN Communications, worth 185 million? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JAMES F. CLASPILL III who wrote (1746)	12/5/1997 1:09:00 PM
From: Rich Genik	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2985

Hi Jim, I think we will continue to see lower lows for the rest of the year. The bulk of people holding NTN currently have it at a loss and therefore we are subject to the end of year tax loss selling pressure. We'll see a recovery from wherever we end up on Dec. 31 in January. What concerns me is the end of Feb., when the first conversion date is approaching. Jerry is right in that the deal is structured to provide more benefits on the upside; however, it also has an incentive for the price to drop right near the conversion date. When the new shares are issued, we will see dilution. None of this is great news. My hope is that we have turned the corner, and if NTN shows even a $1 profit in Q4, I don't think any amount of shorting can keep the price from moving back up. Q4 is a long shot, though. Even if NTN manages to get a new contract with AOL where they will still receive revenues, I don't see it kicking in before 1Q 98. We only have a few weeks left this year and we haven't heard a peep out of Carlsbad about a renewal. This will drop total revenues by about $1M compared to Q3. I fear that will translate directly to the bottom line, as they are still providing the service to AOL but won't be paid this quarter for it. I'm still long NTN. IWN has HUGE potential, and Jerry's strategy of building the NTN network into a pseudo-cable service is novel. We have people on the board now with plenty of telecommunications experience. In the long run, we will be rewarded for our patience. ... Rich