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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (51523)5/20/2013 9:43:50 AM
From: valuedude  Respond to of 78744
 
ANS.TO has a lot of debt. Watch the debt it could kill them.



To: E_K_S who wrote (51523)6/28/2013 9:59:27 AM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78744
 
Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd. (ANS.TO)
Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd. (ANSBF) -OTC Markets

Upped my small position by 30% in this Canadian OSB board manufacturer. Company sold off 25% earlier this week on low volume and for no company specific news. It appears that the Fed tapering and slightly higher interest rates spooked the sector especially the builders. The actual fact is that both new homes and remodels are still in a modest and sustained recovery and YOY prices are up 12%.

Framing lumber is now being reported in shortage and by extension I assume OSB lumber is or will be too.

Builders and Lumber Dealers Both Report Shortages of Key Materials
... the share of builders reporting a shortage was considerably higher in May of 2013 than in 2011 or 2012. For example, the share of builders reporting a shortage of framing lumber jumped from 3 to 4 percent in 2011 and 2012 to 18 percent in May of 2013. The share had been as high as 24 percent in October of 2004, but starts at that time were over 2 million.



Although the shares of reported shortages are not as high now as they were in 2004 or 2005, the recent surges are significant when you take the early stage of the housing recovery into account. In 2004 and 2005 the home building industry was producing over 1.8 million new homes a year. Although the current rate of new housing starts is still below 1 million, supply constrains like shortages of materials, lots, and labor have emerged as barriers to a more robust recovery
.EKS