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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Beckett who wrote (6568)	12/5/1997 2:51:00 PM
From: Gambit	Respond to of 13925

Jon your right we will never see creaf at 10-12 (I'd like to know who would sell @ that price) any time soon as things look right now. As for under 19... again your view is right on the money. Still think we should have the ask jon channel :) As for me i'm back in CREAF after being out for some time... hell at this price i'd be stupid not to buy. Easy 40-50% in 1Q! Adam

To: David Beckett who wrote (6568)	12/5/1997 3:04:00 PM
From: Hitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13925

Just some odds n ends 7/01/97 S'pore $ 1.430/ US$----Yen 114.80/US$........ 12/05/97 S'pore $ 1.610/ US$----Yen 129.30/US$........ Creative according to DMG sources DVD machines from Panasonic and Toshiba and orders are placed on a weekly basis ie.Little inventory cost and benefit from weakening Yen. Substantial majority of Creaf components for all products are purchased from SE Asia corps. (weakening local currencies = lower real cost. to CREAF) Much has been made of the decline in sales in SE Asia and perhaps a slowing in sales in South America. PER DMG '97 sales break down as follows-- 3% Singapore, 50% America, 26% Europe, 21% rest of the world. Sim has suggested 10-15% revenue growth for this quarter and FY98 as a whole. Assume the analysts are correct and we have a 20% slowdown in non US/Europe sales----20% x 24% = decline of 4.8% of total sales... in weak currency areas. Assume Sim is correct and the US/Europe market increases by 10%... 10%x 76% = overall sales increase of 7.6%.... 7.6 - 4.8 = +2.8% overall sales increase, this is using the most drastic % decline in SE Asia sales that I have seen, and the minimum sales increase indicated by SIM. It would appear that we can expect a sales mix as follows---80% US/Europe,... 20% Rest of the world. So it would appear that CREAF will sell 80% of it's products in regions with strong currencies and purchase a substantial majority of it's components from companies located in regions with weak currencies. (that sounds like margin expansion to me) The US dollar has gained approx. 12% versus the YEN since 7/1/97 and 12.5% versus the S'pore dollar in that same period. As I said,, just some odds n ends Hitch