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To: NOW who wrote (50168)5/14/2013 10:16:23 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 219267
 
One reason rates went to 15% in the past was a lack of money.
if rates went to 15% that is more than the entire tax receipts to service debt
I heard this AM there is something like $400B (don't quote me) in cash sloshing around in the US. That seemed far too low, maybe it was in public company balance sheets... so I did a search and the amount is $2.583 trillion!

www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf/mm_05_09_13

You don't think most of that would jump to buy 4% or 5%, 10yr USTs if given the opportunity? I would pay the early withdrawal penalty today to liquidate my CDs to get 5% for 10 years.... That would FORCE the banks to raise rates to keep my money.... higher rates would SLAM the breaks on the housing and economic recovery... and crush any inflation.

Bottom line is we should have moderate inflation for a long time (mostly due to low wages, robots replacing humans at fast food, people on Skype in call centers taking orders for McDonalds and Burger Kings so they can use less workers and apply them where needed, when needed...) and higher rates just above inflation should suck up the capital quickly.