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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: elmatador who wrote (100669)5/20/2013 3:43:04 PM
From: Maurice Winn2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217543
 
As the great and amazing Alan Greenspan KBE pointed out, it's difficult to tell when there is irrational exuberance until after the bust. As the estimable and venerable Warren Buffett pointed out, there are lots of cheap stocks and that the relentless and inevitable USA economy is going to keep right on steaming ahead so he expected to profit from Burlington rail and Wells Fargo, and he did, in a big way.

The Gold Bug Preppers had gained so much street cred that people started to believe them and join the chant "This time it's different", "Gold to da sky", "Goodbye US$".

In the 1980s Japan was going to leave the USA in the dust. But they didn't.

There are always bubbles as people try to get money for nothing.

Gold has been in a big bubble for a decade, along with US$. A Goedelian self-referential financial relativity theory Double Bubble in which each is valued using the other as a measuring stick as though there's no externality. The Gold Bugs have been winning. But the Fed is not a helpless, credulous, naif. The Federal Reserve owns the US$ and does not want it converted to useless valueless confetti. They make money only while people around the world will pay the dilution dividend and pay interest on loans from the Federal Reserve and will use the US$ as a means of exchange and store of value.

<In the current momentum driven market we are on the cusp of partying like its 1999, all the while flirting with the danger that when the music stops the consequences of having bought anywhere near the top are likely to be brutal and swift. > Trite but untrue. "The music" does not stop, ever. Life goes on, people must eat, mate, look after their children and have fun. 1999 was last century. It's now the 21st century and Cyberspace rulz. The world changed at the Y2K peak. It's a new world order. There is no peak, the sky's the limit. Yes, there can and will be short term peaks and big drops as people experiment with finding maximum returns on their investments and take fright from time to time. But there is no law of financial gravity which requires the end of the world and a return to Aztec times with gold and Ra ruling with temporal terror beyond an event horizon inside a black hole.

In financial relativity theory, when financial inches are shorter than previously due to dilution, measuring a financial instrument shows it to be "bigger" than it was previously. For example, the house in front of us is for sale and apparently it could sell for NZ$1.8 million. We looked at that house back in 1989 and could have bought it for about $230. But it needed a lot of work. Before Tony started major rebuild work on it in 2007 it was worth about $1.1 million. He probably spent about $200,000 on it. There is a big property price surge now on in Auckland. The auction will be in a week or so. Financial inches have shrunk a lot over quarter of a century and even more over the quarter century before that.

Share prices reflect shrinking financial inches due to financial relativity theory, but they also reflect increased profits because 7 billion people are all buying things and making things and doing things to make their lives better which most of them do by doing something useful for other people in exchange for payment in some form or other.

Americans ignorantly think that Made in China is bad for the USA, but instead of having just 4 billion people to buy and sell with [as was the case 30 years ago], Americans now have another 1.3 billion people who are no longer poverty stricken and held prisoner by Maoistic MADness. Those hordes are now making things and buying things too. It's great news that people in China are wealthier and can afford to buy Qualcomm's CDMA/OFDM/wifi and Globalstar's SPOT, not to mention Apple's iPhone and Samsung's swishy cyberphones and Huawei's networks and BHP's mineral resources and NZ's milk and sheep meat [except that there is some glitch with bribery perhaps not paid as China has stopped NZ sheep meat at the border for some unexplained reason].

Party on, Dow 16,000 coming right up, 11 years late. Irrational exuberance? What irrational exuberance?
Mqurice