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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anne Stehley who wrote (15308)	12/5/1997 10:24:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Anne- Yesterday morning well before the opening 6000 miles away I posted to Steve the reaction of the market on a possiblity of a strong number- TT has been very generous to acknowledge that read however in my humble opinion this was a reaction to 'fear' enveloping the markets- that is the fear of 'deflation' to be honest with you if I would have seen stagnation and slowing down of economy or slowing wages the 'Big Kahuna' virtual fantasies' may have had the possiblity to see light of day however it was not to be. Now the most interesting thing here to observe is that we are making absolute new highs will we go further- yes I think there is lot of room for S&P to move up -our SOX and Techs are languishing so there is all around broad movement minus techs- once the fears of deflation very rightly are punctured we may see that we go higher with markets realising that we are not going to dogs- it is this one reason I had last week raised the prospects of two possiblties one is SOX going thru 280 other SOX forming a triple bottom and moving higher. I am sure shorts must have got a lesson from taking unconventional view strong numbers would kill the market -why should it? Were not the fears of deflations had brought the market to 6900 test- now we have a explosive situation SOX and Techs with potential of big move sit in an oversold territory- SP has moved up on DOW 100 and big tickets these green pastures have as you very rightly put denied to we 'childrens of lesser God' the children of techs- I see a rally brewing as our test of 280 held three rather four attempts- I see a movement based on Russel 2000 and SOX and Techs- a 60 point move up on one of my pet indicators would take S&P upto 1050 the level of Abby Cohen the nemesis of the 'bears'- bonds have finally broken that is just the start I see yields up to 6.20% the market may be choppy until a decisive break of 942 and 280 on the SOX you should not be worried- for me markets will fully value all these factors in next few days, you must have noticed yesterday that it took lot to get SOX out of this 290 resistance and close above- lets get another close up and clearance of 300- Russel will also help as market will build its case on the realities on grond i.e. shorts and bears cannot make and sell two stories at the same time- deflation and inflation- for them world was ending now since yesterady the argument is that inflation will kill the profits perhaps fast growth will be now tapered by ASEAN slow down AG will do nothing on 16th Dec- the rising wage pressures will see a very balanced averaging effect from disinflationry import prices. Correct market predictions and corrections within a bull trend are interdependent phenomenon whosoever made a case of 'disater' will now be loicking the inflicted wounds- longs do see there levels but shorts need to cover margin calls- I could possibly not made the predictions yesterday on interpretations of markets on strong numbers if my logic of big picture was based on some skewed model- when market reacts to our reading rightly it just confirms that our logic and market logic has the same wavwe length- but we also have our important TA support breaks which do give us advantage if we watch our downside carefully upside is nothing but a reality jolt to shorts- my levels are 992- 1000 and 1010- on SOX 298- 305 309 320 and 325 a couple of closes above our levels make the pierced resistance as new support like on Monday close if we see SOX 300 290 will be an important support and 980 on SPZ.