Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (59968)	5/23/2013 6:33:32 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

This is the update of the "long" table for Bookings and Billings going all the way back to 1991. This table really shows the lack of growth in Bookings and Billings "dollars" as the years roll by. For those who are interested in the numbers, there are a lot of items to note in the table, but let's look at just one example. Note that Bookings this month were 1173M. Eighteen years ago in April 1995, Bookings were 1180M, 7M more than this past month. Now there is no question that the money today will buy a huge increase in performance compared to the same amount of money in 1995, but nevertheless, the improvement in semi-equip technology has produced more and higher density semiconductors over the years to improve life as we go along while keeping the cost of building this semi capital equipment at a more or less constant level. This table clearly shows how Bookings "peaked" in 2010 and has been on a downtrend ever since. Unless something drastically changes soon, 2013 will clearly continue the downtrend from the 2010 baseline. Bookings for the first 4 months of this year are all lower than the comparable months of 2010. Bookings for the first 4 months of this year are 4426M. Let's be generous and say that the remaining 8 months provide 10000M of Bookings. That gives us 14426M for 2013. Compare that to the 18450M of 2010. That is a drop of 4024M(-22%). Billings(revenue) is also going to be down in 2013 compared to 2010. How much is guessing of course, but I would say based on the 4017M of Billings for the last 4 months compared to the 16777M of 2010, and with 8 months to go assume another 10000M in Billings, 2013 Billings will be down about 2000M from 2010. We can look back on this projection(s) at the end of the year when actuals are all in to see how close or far away they are.