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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Defrocked who wrote (10966)12/5/1997 6:42:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
Hi Defrocked,

Thanks for the two references, I'll check them out.

GZ



To: Defrocked who wrote (10966)12/5/1997 9:13:00 PM
From: Bilow  Respond to of 94695
 
Hi Defrocked; Regarding yield curves...
Thanks for the lead to the NY fed. Here's the link to the HTML
that allows you to download the PDF, (which I did and found
applicable to our current situation):
ny.frb.org

Basically, a flat yield curve means a probability of recession
of about 25% four quarters later (i.e. 4Q98).

The NY Fed basically says, in this paper, that the yield curve
is the best early indicator of a recession.

-- Carl


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