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Technology Stocks : Gateway (GTW) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DWW II who wrote (4953)	12/5/1997 7:49:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8002

>>Hey Skeets, just thought I'd jump in and say you're both crazy!<< hey, i've been called worse. ;-) hey, i've admitted that i don't KNOW exactly what gtw will do on several occasions. however, two things could have caused gtw's problems over the last 9 months. internal management problems or fundamental changes in the industry that gtw was not prepared for. or, a combination of the two. you lean toward the former and i lean toward the latter. i'm not completely shooting in the dark. almost every computer maker went from minting money to loasing money - one by one. it used to be gtw, muei, cpq, dell, hp and ibm were the only ones doing well. then hp started disappointing a little and ibm had to make a fundamental shift in their strategy and came out with an amd p1666 computer for $999. gtw and muei have both been zapped badly of late. what is the probability that they developed completely different managerial problems within months of each other that is seperate from the industry as a whole? my vote is small. very small. i bet probabilities, not possibilities. anyway, the longs, imho, should hedge their bets by buying puts to protect their investment. maybe jan 25s. they are probably pretty cheap. this market is very volatile and gravity is currently over whelming the helium. a disappointment now would be devastating to the stock price. why? if they can't make money in xmas then everyone will write gtw off for at least 9 months. nobody will buy a stock expecting to lose their butt for 9 months. well, maybe the ex mu investors will ;-) steve has good insight into the computer industry. however, it is a logical fallacy to believe that being bullish on cpq and dell during a bull market makes one a guru. the basis of his opinion may or may not be correct. we won't know unless his opinion changes when we are in a bear market. if he stays bullish then he was lucky, not good. even so, steve does add lots of value to the discussion because he's knowledgeable about the industry. btw, steve said to buy gtw on dips to $38 b/c it would bounce back. well, it bounced back for a day or two and he didn't tell everyone to sell. then gtw bounced right into a pit. when i called him on it he said he was right b/c gtw did bounce back (for 1 or 2 days only). but, he wasn't telling everyone to sell when it bounced a couple bucks. he also bought calls on gtw that expired worthless. he really understands cpq and he's been right on the money so far with them. gtw is no cpq...