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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Javelyn Bjoli who wrote (1565)	12/6/1997 12:28:00 AM
From: wm sharp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

With news of VLNC's high speed lines running near full capacity, I guess Valence will have its hands full with those darn revenue management problems. At least ULBI gets off easy. Here's the math, based on one of Fred's earlier posts. Each high speed VLNC line (Italian mf) has about twice the capacity of the earlier VLNC line (Line 1) from Florida. ULBI's only current line, apparently still under refinement, was produced by this same Florida manufacturer. So, as long as we've got the crystal balls out this evening, here's how the total capacities for the two companies compare at hypothetical mid-98: VLNC: 1 low speed + 2 high speed = 5X ULBI: 1 low speed = 1X Granted the low speed lines produce higher ASP, but - just for grins - I'll calculate the comparison in capacity-per-share outstanding: VLNC: 5/23M shares = 0.22 ULBI: 1/10M shares = 0.10 Then, let's factor in the current share price disparity: VLNC: $6 ULBI: $16 Which means the VLNC shareholder gets about 5.9X the projected production capability per dollar invested as the ULBI shareholder (looking out about 6 months). I'm not sure who's crystal ball could justify THAT kind of disparity on nebulous assumptions about revenue management skills at the two companies.