To: sheila rothstein who wrote (38660 ) 12/5/1997 10:27:00 PM From: Ben Antanaitis Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58324
SR, 1) The analyst is expressing some of the 're-thinking' of the possible effects of the Asian currency crisis. Initially, all the commentary was total doom and gloom and all the stocks, esp the techs, that had any connections with the SE Asian area were taken out and shot. With time, and further thought, some began to observe and speculate that if a corporation has infrastructure (factories, fabrication, assembly lines, printing, packaging, etc.) in SE Asia and either the raw materials, labor, 'bricks and mortar', power bills, etc. are paid for in the local currency, then those costs of production will be reduced in direct ratio to the US$/local$ ratio. NOW, if the finished goods are destined for final sales in US$ or European$ then the bottom line should be directly benefited by the improved profit margins. This enhanced margin effect will last as long as the imbalance remains. It can be further enhanced if the demand surges during the period of currency imbalance. Now, any sales targeted for the SE Asian region may have to be re priced to a lower level to remain competitive (but what is the competition?). And what is the percentage of total sales vs SE Asians sales? Is it offset by the European markets increased profits? Perhaps others will have that data.... 2)The chart still looks overall bullish. IOM is currently testing the previous low at 30.41 and it appears that IOM bounced off of that resistance. To re-ignite the upward momentum, IOM has to climb over that 32 5/16 point that it struggled with last week. IOM is still under the influence of a 'buy' signal, this weeks down drift didn't cancel the 'buy' that was indicated when IOM hit 33. Of course, this is all my opinion, and not investment advice. Ben A.