Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (55095)	6/5/2013 4:16:43 PM
From: Bargain Hunter	Respond to of 60323

Paying down debt to improve the balance sheet: suggests they will be cautious regarding capital spending. He didn't just suggest it, he flatly said it. And I will flatly say, there won't be any new fabs coming from Micron or Sandisk for at least 2 or 3 years. Micron clearly doesn't need new fabs, they will be getting new capacity from Elpida. Yes, but saying they will be cautious is protected by safe harbor warnings. Needing to reduce the debt load makes it more convincing. And it isn't just about new fabs. It also takes a significant amount of capital spending to convert from DRAM to NAND, so unless the need is compelling they will likely be cautious there too. My opinion, as I said in the last post, is that Samsung and Hynix are going to 3D because they know that they are behind the cost curve right now, and want to try to skip ahead, not unlike Micron did maybe 7 years ago or so--they skipped the 5x generation, I believe it was. But that was a different kind of thing than skipping to 3D from 2D. Especially, if, as Sandisk, Micron and AMAT say, it isn't really ready yet to be competitive with leading edge 2D, which is where Micron and Sandisk are. I'm trying to understand why Samsung and Hynix want to go to 3D too. Maybe they think they can get some government funding based on the claim of leading the industry. I'm intrigued by the SanDisk slide that we have seen a couple of times recently (#11 in the Sanford Bernstein set). The horizontal axis is described as "Breadth of Customer Applications" and presumably is supposed to indicate that 3D will initially be applied to less-demanding applications (and customers). Oddly the BiCS "Gen 1 - Pilot" line length exactly matches the Competitor "Gen 2" line length and the same for BiCS "Gen 2" versus Competitor "Gen 3". Presumably the breadth of applications would be partly a function of manufacturing prowess and partly a function of secret sauce (likely to be a mix of the parts of the old flavor as used for 2D and some new flavor elements needed for 3D). It just seems surprising to me that it would result in equal lines. More background detail for that slide would be interesting.