To: Ed Pakstas who wrote (1440 ) 12/6/1997 4:18:00 AM From: VAUGHN Respond to of 11676
Hello Ed ***OFF TOPIC*** Personally, I believe any inflation data that will affect gold shorters, will have to come from the US. I doubt Canadian inflation will carry any weight in the market's eyes and I don't see any on the horizon in Europe or Asia, at least in the short term. If anything, with the economic slowdown in Asia, I suspect you will see deflationary pressure on industrial commodities. I believe the story (pattern) of 1998 will be investment $$ slowly hedging out of large cap US stocks. Large caps will have increasing difficulties finding the profits to support their price multiples and as US interest rates and inflationary pressures slowly increase, short term interest instruments, realestate, and to some extent, the asian, canadian and emerging stock markets will benefit. Gold will eventually rally as will big cap US stocks, but I suspect these will be short lived and cyclical with traders slipping in and out on lows & highs. After a mutual fund driven rally in the spring, interest rates will modestly increase throughout the year and this must eventually result in a significant market correction. The good will be dragged down with the bad, as always. Hard assets, interest rate imune growth companies, investment commodity based companies and to some degree gold (later in the year) are the only investments/assets I believe will consistently produce profit growth in the next few years. Canadians and to some degree Americans, continue to have significant personal and public debt loads. As markets falter, interest rates slowly rise and wages increase, I suspect debt retirement not major purchases, will become the preoccupation of the majority. For that reason, and because of the condition of world economies and markets, I don't believe we will see significant inflation in the near future. However, by the end of the century, world market growth should be increasing demand on industrial commodities and the Incos of the world should be well positioned to profit with high grade low cost producing properties. That is what makes VB and hopefully SVB so potentially valuable, especially if PGE values can be established. Chinese, Russian, Japanese, Latin and Middle European demand for housing and the good life must increase demand and prices for nickle, zinc, cobalt, copper, steel, lumber, oil, consumer goods and diamonds. That is when inflation will, in my opinion, be a significant concern. Regards