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Technology Stocks : LED light bulbs and the manufacturing of them -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (34)	6/9/2013 10:34:10 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 140

GE/Cree, Sony, Phillips, Samsung. You will see both traditional electronics (bulb) manufacturers and semiconductor companies there. I would expect to see everyone making LCD displays trying to grab a share of the bulb revolutionary technology. In other words, expect both traditional electronics heavyweights and semiconductor heavyweights in the market. They got the Fabs. One can look for smaller start-ups in this market. Yeah, you need RGB LEDs in phosphorus to make a light. How much more efficient (thinner) can they make this? The second question is how much subsidies are they getting? Which is kinda important. The area is very "Green", so it is currently heavily subsIdized by the Obama administration. Should we expect a crash in Year 2016? This may not be the biggest concern. However, it is interesting that oil price peaked during the last year of GWB presidency.

To: robert b furman who wrote (34)	6/10/2013 7:13:08 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 140

electroiq.com This is old, but main players won't change all that fast It's truly stunning that led made it into household lighting! I would expect cheaper prices and tremendous market share gain for led in the next 5 years, but I am not sure how to invest in this boom, because of factors I mentioned. Yeah, price wars. This is a 75 bln market, expect led to take at least 30% if not more. Led will also compete with halo and vanilla light bulbs. It will win, provided the manufacturers can price led bulbs competitively. Don't forget cars also! In a nutshell, your bet is CREE. Any other ideas? One can also do some research on OLeds, based on organic semiconductors. Cree seems to be GaN based and SiC based. The latter seems less expensive, but I think you still need expensive iii-v materials for your led.