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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (11006)12/6/1997 8:47:00 AM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 94695
 
GZ and others: I think there may be some very good reasons to be cautious. One of these is the tone on this thread and Mohan's thread. We are all sounding more positive. I sure have been. The last good buy signal we had was on 11/12 and this thread was very negative that day.

You note that Greenspan does not know what he will do. I believe that. The FOMC is caught between early inflationary indicators (wage issues) and a potential slowdown in the economy. The SEA currency devaluations must have some effect on the U. S. economy next year. What to do? The FOMC, based on their own concerns and Friday's employment data, will want to raise rates. But raise rates when the economy may slow by mid-year? That is why I believe that if they raise rates at this month's meeting it is a mistake. That may be the other shoe or at least something falling.

Currently, my humble little indicators are neutral. They were moving towards positive on Thursday night and are now moving towards the negative. If we have a few more days like Friday, they will be in negative territory. The last time I had a significant signal was a buy on 11/12. This market is crazy. I came to SI in a long position looking for a bear. Since then, my position has gotten longer. However, there are more stocks in bear formations and some industries in bear formations. I am just waiting for the best opportunity to reverse positions.

But what does a confused fellow like me know anyway.