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To: Return to Sender who wrote (2180)	6/11/2013 8:38:25 PM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Respond to of 8251

I'm not so sure I would use the phrase "borrowed time". I am certainly concerned when looking at 2 year chart after chart and seeing so many with the bottom left starting points and top right ending points. Whether we see much of a pause at this time is hard to gauge for this observer. So many things working in the right direction with respect to the future and at the same time we have plenty of reasons to be very concerned. Long term, I am much more concerned about how the world transitions from the current "easy/easing" monetary policy back to a "more normal" phase. The shattering of confidence in the system that was done in 2008-2009 continues to cast a dark shadow over the financial world. Forward strides are being made and continue to be taken. However, the fear of another collapse or a negative deviation is so rampant that I believe this helps us all. More are conservative, fewer will take great risks financially. With respect to the US stock market, it's rarely ever "smooth sailing". We've had a great run from the lows of a few years ago and there are plenty of people who are either still in wait mode or are in denial of the move. However, being patient is not a bad thing but being afraid to enter the market is not good for those who truly understand how the market works. There are almost always subsectors in bull runs and those that are bearish. Similarly, there are some that are washing out and turning upward while others have had their runs and would be better off "consolidating" the run up. I recently put a post here that recaps links to a number of the sectors I try to follow. With the large banks still doing well, I can't get overly bearish but I am waiting to see some "consolidation", sideways movement or back filling. As long as you don't marry one position or think you've got the overall market completely figured out, I think many can prosper under our current economic (and political landscape but this area is for another thread, IMO). I play VXX intraday now and then when I think we're do for a decent backfill. Likewise, I'll use the opposite XVI to do the same when I think we're in for an upward, steady move in the SPY. I use a combination of individual stock trading and the ETFs and ETNs. I rarely hold or take positions overnight but I went long VXX at the close yesterday and closed out before the market opened $1 to the better. Even though I profited, I thought long and hard about whether or not I'll be making more of these types of trades, as there is just too much that can happen while the market is closed. The more I trade, the more I like being flat at the end of each day for my personal account. Investing for an IRA is very different and I've noted my style on this thread plenty of times. Even though we take oversized positions to start, we never are in a position to have one trade ruin all the good work we've done in the past. Our "oversized" positions rarely are more than 7% or 8% of our entire account. Most are in the neighborhood of 3% to 5%....fwiw.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2180)	6/12/2013 8:26:23 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 8251

One last thought that keeps me open to more bullish moves is that the washout lows from a few years ago were on a monumental scale. Babies being tossed out with the bath water. The extreme moves to the downside make the current bull run look more massive than it is in a longer scale time frame.