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To: Return to Sender who wrote (2195)	6/12/2013 2:36:10 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 8250

Excellent reference, RtS.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2195)	6/12/2013 2:39:11 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8250

Let me add that I don't watch/listen to CNBC all that often but they are practically jumping up and down today about the spike in VXX and volatility. Often, this is a short term warning that too many are getting into the same trade. Not always, of course. Certainly, it's worth watching to see if we get more of these massive short term swings in the markets. This was a major red flag in March/April of last year. Now it's starting again.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2195)	6/14/2013 12:12:57 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8250

For all the negativity and bearishness that's hitting the presses, I think it should be noted that the SPY is still in the top half of it's 10 day chart, with yesterday's rebound. On the daily chart, the buy the dips mentality is still alive as each time we've hit the 50 day moving average, we've had a significant bounce. Most of us have been saying since March or April that we needed a significant breather after the impressive run which started in November. It will be interesting to look back much later in the year to see if this recent top was "the" top for this year. A lot of conflicting currents which make reading the long term tea leaves difficult. Sure, the one month chart looks less attractive but that's coming down off the all time highs. EDIT - here's a link to the daily SPY charts and RtS's monthly chart is the post I'm responding to with this note Message 28748273 Second EDIT - there is still the gap from May 2 - May 3 that might want to be closed in the next few weeks/days....implying that the high 1500s might be a target area for this move down. We've had the series of lower highs for the past month, which is needed in any correction or back fill move. That trend is still in tact and caution should be exercised while this trend plays out. It also seems to me that the 50 day moving average continues to move higher and a decent break below it looks to be setting up for sometime in the near future. The April highs and the early May lows might be a good target to look for on the downside, if momentum in that direction picks up. A successful test of the April lows would be very bullish for the market in general and could be a fantastic place for those out of the market to consider legging in. Keep in mind that a break below that area would be a huge red flag, to this observer. Lastly, while I love the monthly chart, it does not show the previous fall process. Looking at this chart, out of context, so to speak, gives one the impression of a much stronger market than would be indicated by adding the previous year and a half to it. I would enjoy hearing from others with respect to their short, intermediate and long term views, if you care to share. Good trading! T.O.