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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (14170)	6/14/2013 7:54:53 AM
From: Doo	Respond to of 33421

Indeed....

To: puborectalis who wrote (14170)	6/15/2013 6:52:42 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

I am going to be discussing the Insurance Industry as several of the Publically traded insurance companies are going to have much Larger claims made on Insurance Policies this year and thus they will be stocks to get out of your long portfolio. Also a couple which are likely candidates for strategies where the downside from a technical analysis as well as fundamental analysis will make them attractive especially for professional money managers and hedge funds that can implement more sophisticated option butterfly spreads and CDS.... working with convertible bonds etc. For those of you who have an account with Morgan Stanley, Citi, UBS, MER / BAC, NY Life, and a *legion of top quality smaller firms* you have access to putting some of your portfolio into fund of funds that utilize I have already seen the extensive data from the National Hurricane Center and it's going to be a very nasty Hurricane season and vicious season for weather Events gone awry.... I spent an hour and a half talking with a really sharp man.... with Allstate who pointed out that several firms including Allstate really took a hit to their books due to Storm Sandy just prior to last November's election. Insurance companies, since they are premises on the Actuarial tables that are created by very well compensated Actuaries..... work on the concept of the "Law of Large Numbers" to create pricing for insurance products and many variables go into the models..... since the models are only as good as the data from the past and longer periods of time are averaged out when you encounter a period of greater volatility or above average storms, tornados.... weather events of all type that are "black Swans".... ie. Statistical outliers then the best of models can have a company positioned where they take a hit on their earnings.... This occurs on a recurring cyclical basis and pretty much in all industries.... San Antonio had 17 Inches of rain in the past 24 hours.... and is getting more the amount of rain the will get during this weekend is about the amount they get in the average YEAR (source ABC National News at 6:30 PM tonight.) This will impact several companies..... more to follow your humble scribe, John J........