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To: damniseedemons who wrote (14676)12/7/1997 12:31:00 PM
From: Daniel Schuh  Respond to of 24154
 
Sal, the trade press seems to have massively converted to the ilk religion, Microsoft bets the company on NT5 and then slips it indefinitely, and antitrust pops up on numerous fronts, and you say nows the time to buy? Sorry, that prayer from The Economist revived my religious faith, and I'd be hypocritical to be praying for one thing and betting on another. :-)

Seriously, I've never claimed to understand investing, but I have to say I'm impressed by the way Microsoft stock has held steady and even picked up a bit in the face of what seems like rather negative news. The power of the monopolistic death grip, I guess, where are people going to go anyway? And of course, I'm sure Microsoft will make money no matter what; as you say, cheap PC's drive unit sales up and there's no price pressure on Microsoft. If I thought the stock price reflected just confidence in Microsoft's growth in the current OS/Office core, and not expectation of expansion in the monopolistic death grip area, internet and other fronts, I could handle owning Microsoft. But wouldn't I have to start cheering for Microsoft on the war on Java then? And all those other things where Bill's offering that all important proprietary lock, at an apparently seductive price, for now? It's all too confusing for me.

Cheers, Dan.



To: damniseedemons who wrote (14676)12/7/1997 9:45:00 PM
From: Charles Hughes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24154
 
>>What does this mean? Well, PC hardware companies are getting hurt with pricing pressures. Meanwhile, unit growth in has accelerated. Let's see...which company only cares about unit sales, not ASPs? Microsoft, of course!!! Microsoft gets the same royalty whether the PC sells for $900 or $3900. This is *great* for MSFT.

So once again, I'll reiterate my "Strong Buy" rating on MSFT.<<<

Thanks, Sal. Your argument is pretty convincing, short term. This should be good for programmers and software companies in general. The cheaper PCs and TV/PCs should bring some new demographics to the table, which can stimulate the demand for new kinds of applications.

Microsoft, meanwhile, has no competition in PC OS, so they can hold their price up even if it becomes half the cost of owning a PC. Short term. Longer term, I'm not sure that Windows of any flavor is a sensible OS for PC/TV, and other OS mfrs like Sun/Javasoft, BE, and so on may take a shot at those boxes. Right now they almost all run OS you never heard of (like the small-dish satellite set top box, which some friends of mine wrote the OS for.)

BTW, though, are you sure that MS doesn't scale the cost of the OS to the cost of the box or the volume at all? How does that work?

Chaz