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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (11102)	12/6/1997 1:39:00 PM
From: Mr. Aloha	Respond to of 25960

One last comment on projected sales.... techweb.cmp.com "This year Nikon is expected to lead the industry in step-and-scan system sales, shooting past SVGL. According to some industry experts, Nikon will end up shipping about 150 systems -- nearly double the 80 that sources estimate SVGL -- will ship this year. John J. Shamaly, vice president of marketing for Silicon Valley Group, SVGL's parent, won't disclose production levels this year, but said the company is ramping production as fast as possible and expects to deliver 200 step-and-scan systems in 1999. Logic chip makers are now being driven to scanners in order to get higher throughput for their system-on-a-chip products. They can achieve this by patterning two die at a time on a wafer with a single exposure. DRAM producers too will likely be forced to step-and-scan for production of 1-gigabit chips. TAKEN FROM MORGAN STANLEY AGAIN ON 10/24... Further more, we believe a bottom-up summation of stepper supplier DUV shipment forecasts for 1998 yields a solution in excess of 600 systems (ASML 150, Canon 150, Nikon 275-300, SVG 25-50 Micrascan III's) So they think SVGI is going to go from 25-50 in 1998 to what?? SVGI says they expect to do 200 units in 1999 - that's a hell of an increase from 1998 to 1999 no? If Nikon is going to do 150 units by the end of 1997, will they do 275-300 in 1998? If they did, they'd loose A VERY LARGE AMOUNT of market share when you factor in SVGI's growth rate comparison. What's the story Morgan? Put the HOLD to cover your butt in case something happens? Put the BUY out and say everythings been cleared up? Sounds smart but unfortunate to me. ------------------------------- If CYMER sold 327 units in the 9 months of 1997 and ASM is 25% Canon is 24% Nikon is 41% SVG is 4% and SVG expects to (SHIP) 80 this year and Nikon 150... So far, SVG has sold approx. 4% of 327 = 13 units and Nikon 41% of 327 = 134 units. That leaves (80 - 13 = 67 units) + (150 - 134 = 16 units) = 83 units. What will ASM and Canon add to this total? 126 units last Q - 83 calculated so far = 43 units. We know Nikon has been the trouble spot. Could we say something like 30 units from ASM and 30 from Canon for a total of 143 units? That's a rough example because their talking about units shipped not ordered from CYMER. If inventory was high, they wouldn't need to order a much etc.. Aloha