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To: Lee who wrote (24396)12/6/1997 2:53:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
Lee, the issue of stock splits affecting the price of a stock has been studied to death. Some people have found an effect, but it turns out that the increase occurs before the split occurs (i.e., the stock is still trading at the higher value) -- so in effect the price does not act as a determinant for demand.

Most people who have studied the issue of splits feel that the split is triggered by increasing stock prices -- not the other way around. Splits used to make sense when people paid more for buying stocks in odd lots, but since this differential has been eliminated, the rationale is gone.

An interesting way of viewing this is to suppose that the country goes metric. We would not expect the price per lb. or per oz. to change based on the way we measure weight.

Regards,

Paul



To: Lee who wrote (24396)12/6/1997 4:24:00 PM
From: Gabriel008  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
Lee, zipping through Barron's today I stumbled upon an article entitled "Day
Labor - a surprising factor in hourly earnings". Since I was somewhat
surprised by yesterday's upward move by the Dow & Nasdaq despite the
404,000 non-farm payroll increase & the 4.6% unemployment rate I
decided to see if this writer - Gene Epstein -had anything to say on the
matter.

Lo and behold this guy said something very interesting concerning the
way in which the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates hourly earnings
increases. Distortions in the system generate a 7.2% increase on an
annualized basis for the November period. December's will, in most
likelihood, work oiut to be 0% on the same annualized basis. The reason -
very simple - 20 weekdays in November vs 23 in December. Can it be so
simple? It appears so & the BLS is in the process of fixing this minor
glitch.

Another salient point; we no longer operate in a closed economy - we
compete in a global economy. Rising wage rates, therefor, don't
necessarily translate into inflation since we are competing with lower
wage rates from abroad. This is particularly important since Asia is
actually experiencing disinflation. Companies must absorb wage rate
increases & find ways of maintaining profitability without raising prices in
order to remain competitive & keep shareholders happy.

So, net net, the BLS data is questionably accurate particularly since they
continue to adjust it in later periods anyway. And, lower unemployment
although a direct catalyst for wage increases doesn't necessarilly
translate into a higher overall inflation rate. The only sobering thing is that
companies have to offset these wage increases through better
management - and this includes improved productivity, exploitation of
higher margin new markets, and superior marketing know-how. And, there in a nutshell is why DELL is my favorite & most productive stock in my portfolio.