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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (179021)	6/24/2013 7:32:11 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Recommended By evestor LoneClone Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206168

Noble Energy Inc (NBL) Alert: Road Ahead Clears for Israel / Cyprus LNG Exports Israel Government Approves Export of 40% Of Offshore Natural Gas... – Israel officials announced an agreement to allow the export up to 40% of the country's offshore natural gas reserves. The decision, made by a group of ministers, is up for cabinet approval this Sunday, June 23rd and we believe it will be passed. The agreement on a defined export policy is positive for Noble and sets the stage for LNG exports from the company’s offshore Israel assets (see Figure 1) including Leviathan (NBL 30% WI), Tamar (NBL 36% WI) and Karish (NBL 47% WI). Following the Karish discovery last month (see our May 22nd note), which marked the seventh consecutive field discovery for Noble and its partners in the Levant Basin, and the recent increase in resource estimates at Tamar and Leviathan (see our April 4th note), total discovered gross mean resource in the Levant Basin is now estimated by Noble to be ~38 Tcf. We value the Tamar, Leviathan and Karish discoveries at a combined ~$23/share for Noble, net of royalties (see Figures 2 and 3 for Tamar and Leviathan valuations). ...Which Should Allow For The Woodside JV To Close – Late last year, Noble and its partners agreed to sell a combined 30% stake in Leviathan to Woodside Petroleum (see our December 7th note) that valued Leviathan at ~$2.4bn, or ~$7.00/share net to Noble. However, the closing of the transaction hinged on a well- defined export policy from the Israeli government. Thus, the export policy decision should allow for the JV to close later this year. Leviathan is expected to supply Israel domestic natural gas markets in 2016 and LNG exports are targeted for 2018. Cyprus Also Preliminary Agrees To LNG Development... – Cyprus cabinet members also approved a preliminary deal with Noble, Delek Drilling and Avner Oil Exploration to develop an LNG terminal. We believe that separate LNG export facilities will be developed for both Cyprus and Israel. Cyprus aims to begin LNG exports in 2020 and may seek to process natural gas from Israel and potentially Lebanon in addition to its own reserves. Initial cost estimates for the LNG export terminal is pegged at $10bn. We would note that following the results for the Aphrodite appraisal well, Noble will now likely move forward secure a partner in Cyprus, similar to the Woodside JV for Leviathan, and farm down ~30-40% of its current 70% WI. ...With Aphrodite Appraisal Drilling Now Underway – Following the Karish well results offshore Israel last month, the Ensco 5006 rig moved to Cyprus to drill the Aphrodite 2 appraisal well (NBL 70% WI) with results expected within 3-4 months. In the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Gunflint appraisal results were announced earlier this month (see our June 14th note) and next on the drilling slate is the Troubadour prospect (NBL 88% WI) which should reach total depth (TD) in late Q3’13. Elsewhere, results are expected from the Diega appraisal well offshore West Africa in Q3’13, the Paraiso prospect offshore Nicaragua in Q3’13, and Noble’s N.E Nevada tight oil play by YE13. Also, the Alen field development offshore Equatorial Guinea is on track for first oil in Q3’13. Finally, following rig arrival at YE13, Noble will pursue a deep oil test at Leviathan. See Figure 4 for a summary of the company’s upcoming exploration prospects. Reiterate Buy Rating – And $65.00 per share 12-month price target. 20 June 2013 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com