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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (101262)6/20/2013 12:44:52 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 217540
 
The investigators have watched too many "exploding planes" movies. <After a four-year investigation, the NTSB concluded the plane was destroyed by a center fuel tank explosion likely caused by a spark from faulty wiring. >

The aircraft was taking off for a long flight to the other side of the Atlantic ocean. It will have had on board a full load of fuel.

The fuel such aircraft use is not liquid hydrogen, or gasoline, or such "explosive" hydrocarbons. It's jet fuel. Kerosene or light diesel by another name.

You can toss matches into a bucket of it and it will not ignite. Liquid hydrogen will burn in a great hurry as will gasoline. Diesel and kerosene require considerable heat to achieve ignition.

In an enclosed fuel tank, the air and flammable gases produced by jet fuel will not readily form a flammable mixture which would need to be close to stoichiometric to get going. Too lean or too rich and a spark won't cause ignition. If the "spark" was a short with some good wattage, then with enough air in the fuel tank, a fire and "explosion" could result, but a full tank doesn't have a lot of room in it on an aircraft. The wire would likely have been immersed. The Apollo cockpit burned out but that was in an oxygen-rich cabin, perfect for combustion. A kerosene tank full of fuel is not ideal for getting a fire.

It would be interesting to see them try to cause such a catastrophic explosion in another one of those aircraft with the same amount and type of fuel in that tank. Sitting on the ground of course so there's no loss of life.

Such a short or "spark" would show up as a warning in the cockpit. And maybe in the Black Box.

I forget the details of the crash but recall it was flying low or something.

I don't buy the "spark from static electricity" theory, or "spark from some faulty wire". Do they really have wires going through fuel tanks and said wires are potentially shorting/sparking? That seems a very odd design for an airliner. Fire's are notoriously problematic in aircraft so such a design seems very odd.

Several explosions? From one sparking wire? << i>The CIA's deputy director of intelligence wrote in a 1997 memo,"Our analysis demonstrates that the eyewitness sightings of greatest concern to us—the ones originally interpreted to be of a possible missile attack—took place after the first of several explosions aboard the aircraft."> The CIA deputy director of intelligence has seen too many movies.

Presumably they discounted on-board bombs and were looking for external effects or other failure mode. A spark from a wire in a fuel tank? Not in my book.

What's wrong with Stinger missiles? They could do it.

Mqurice



To: TobagoJack who wrote (101262)6/20/2013 10:28:30 AM
From: John Pitera1 Recommendation

Recommended By
dsv

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 217540
 
Art Cashin has pointed out that if the TNX goes above 2.50% it will be a jailbreak...... The technical momentum indicates we will go be going north of 2.50% over the next 6-8 weeks shorter term we have be going to 2.60-2,75 at a minimum...

the overnight 7 Day Chinese SHIBOR (The Shanghai Interbank Over Night rate) was up 36% or2.92 % to 11.004 %....... this indicates tension in the Chinese Banking system

and the Chinese Repo rate has shot way up to 25% overnight... the Chinese government is very keen to eliminate the shadow banking lending system in China... where liquidity is obtained in pawn shows, and a whole array of shadow lenders... and we have to remember that China has created a huge Commercial and residential sector bubble.... In a number of major cities the commercial vacancy rate in these thousands of brand new office buildings is in excess of 50%

John
about seven minutes before the bell rings today. let's bring in art cashin, and in charge of floor operations. did the market overreact, art? well, it reacted to other markets and less its own analysis here, and while people were talking about what bernanke was saying, the traders on the floor were screaming, did you see what gold just did? look at the brazilian real, and the 10-year, and the fear is that the yield on the 10-year were to spike above 250 then it is a jailbreak. it would mean that the skeptics in the bond market had taken over the process, and bernanke and team may not have control. so it is a rationale fear here. and it seems that the line in the sand that we have seen over the last 24 hours and in some cases over the last three weeks is a problem. it is a problem, and has everybody alert, but again, it is a process. you have to see how far do they go. if they stop here, that might be all right. we are wrestling with the 240 level this morning, and there is also believe it or not, news out of japan, and out of china -- yes, china. that is kind of bizarre a little bit how they are letting the short-term rates run way up. and it is not unnoticed in some of the speculative circles. the cdss are beginning to move up, and for viewers who don't know cds are the canary in the mine. if you remember what happened to a company named lehman, it was the cds that gave you the warning. and people who were playing with the cds to make it look like something that exacerbated the fears that led to it. i don't want to go down that road, but i am curious about the market action. i would have thought after yesterday, i'm curious why you think that we are opening up a lot lower after yesterday's significant sell-off. well, i hate to do the history repeats routine, but i mentioned here, and wrote in my comments yesterday, if you look at the june meeting last year, for the four sessions before collectively, it ran up, the dow ran up 327 points. in the three sessions afterwards, it went down 327 points. so we look like we are repeating. this i don't know if this is the new groundhog or not, but we will tike a -- will take a look. you have to look away from the other news tickers and look at the currencies and the yield on the 10-year, because everybody is worried about that jailbreak, because if bernanke is not in control, we don't know who is. i hear the same, art. that is great advice



To: TobagoJack who wrote (101262)6/20/2013 3:18:35 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217540
 
The Markets are accelerating to the downside and looking at the SPX from the Daily, to the 60 minute, to the 15 minute we are seeing a market that is increasing in momentum no short covering divergences appearing yet.... I would imagine we close on the lows.....This has been looking like an ugly day since 6 AM.

It's been obvious their are way too many talking heads on cnbc, in the government, in the Real estate market who where really promoting hard and wearing rose colored glasses.

John Jacob Pitera



To: TobagoJack who wrote (101262)6/20/2013 3:53:35 PM
From: Bill/WA  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217540
 
My son in law was a pilot for TWA at the time. From the get go he was adamant that it was not a cross over fuel problem. I somewhat tended to believe him because he is more knowledgeable than most pilots about the mechanics and functioning of aircraft.