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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (14185)6/20/2013 10:24:08 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Art Cashin has pointed out that if the TNX goes above 2.50% it will be a jailbreak...... The technical momentum indicates we will go be going north of 2.50% over the next 6-8 weeks shorter term we have be going to 2.60-2,75 at a minimum...

the overnight 7 Day Chinese SHIBOR (The Shanghai Interbank Over Night rate) was up 36% or2.92 % to 11.004 %....... this indicates tension in the Chinese Banking system

and the Chinese Repo rate has shot way up to 25% overnight... the Chinese government is very keen to eliminate the shadow banking lending system in China... where liquidity is obtained in pawn shows

about seven minutes before the bell rings today. let's bring in art cashin, and in charge of floor operations. did the market overreact, art? well, it reacted to other markets and less its own analysis here, and while people were talking about what bernanke was saying, the traders on the floor were screaming, did you see what gold just did? look at the brazilian real, and the 10-year, and the fear is that the yield on the 10-year were to spike above 250 then it is a jailbreak. it would mean that the skeptics in the bond market had taken over the process, and bernanke and team may not have control. so it is a rationale fear here. and it seems that the line in the sand that we have seen over the last 24 hours and in some cases over the last three weeks is a problem. it is a problem, and has everybody alert, but again, it is a process. you have to see how far do they go. if they stop here, that might be all right. we are wrestling with the 240 level this morning, and there is also believe it or not, news out of japan, and out of china -- yes, china. that is kind of bizarre a little bit how they are letting the short-term rates run way up. and it is not unnoticed in some of the speculative circles. the cdss are beginning to move up, and for viewers who don't know cds are the canary in the mine. if you remember what happened to a company named lehman, it was the cds that gave you the warning. and people who were playing with the cds to make it look like something that exacerbated the fears that led to it. i don't want to go down that road, but i am curious about the market action. i would have thought after yesterday, i'm curious why you think that we are opening up a lot lower after yesterday's significant sell-off. well, i hate to do the history repeats routine, but i mentioned here, and wrote in my comments yesterday, if you look at the june meeting last year, for the four sessions before collectively, it ran up, the dow ran up 327 points. in the three sessions afterwards, it went down 327 points. so we look like we are repeating. this i don't know if this is the new groundhog or not, but we will tike a -- will take a look. you have to look away from the other news tickers and look at the currencies and the yield on the 10-year, because everybody is worried about that jailbreak, because if bernanke is not in control, we don't know who is. i hear the same, art. that is great advice