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To: Justinfo who wrote (2265)	6/23/2013 10:13:20 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8255

Hi Justinfo. Welcome to SI. No, I'm not a wave counter but I do enjoy looking at other people's work in that area. I think there's a lot to be said for those patterns and attempts to recognize them. I mostly use chart patterns, past support/resistance levels and my own methodology of looking at and annotating charts. For my daily trading, I follow data tracking the past 4 months of highs and lows. Special emphasis is on 2, 3, 5 and 10 day highs/lows, then 2, 3 and 4 months. I track a large universe of stocks, probably too large, as it's tough to keep up with all of them. As of last weekend, 160 was the 10 day low on the SPY and just below 154 was the 3 month low based on my table but in actuality below 153 was in the 4th month (by one or 2 days), so that # was used. As you can see from the 2nd chart in this link, especially if you zoom in on the section I'm referencing: Message 28748273 ...the 158 area had been a previous high and also an area where the SPY paused for nearly a week on it's way back up off the drop to the 153 area. It just seemed like a logical place to find some downside support if we dropped down below the 160 area. The market's been in a huge bull run since November, so expecting some downside is also logical. How hard or how fast is always up to the market but it helps to have target areas where one MIGHT expect a trend change. The numbers aren't the end all or be all, but they raise possibilities and increase probability. It's important not be wedded to these but to be more open to changes once they occur. I don't like to make too many predictions and I've found that the less I make, the happier I am. This is one of the reasons I use my "Reversal Watch" lists and patterns. Whether or not there is a reversal isn't something I try to predict. I simply watch and wait. Now and then, we'll come to an area where it "looks good" to take a chance on a reversal happening. Sometimes it works and other times it won't. The key is not to be stubborn if the downtrend continues. Get out and try again. If the stock reverses as you've exited, oh well. That will happen. Keep your losing trades small and let your winners runnnn!!! Too many people are afraid to take a loss. I find, the more losers I dump quickly, the better I am in the long run. If your winners are large, you can take quite a few small losses before it starts becoming a problem. Another way to say this is you can have more losing trades than winners, as long as the winners are substantially larger. Traders should trade. That's what we do but you can't be stubborn and or emotional. If you're in a loser, so what? Get out and try again. I hope that helps! TO