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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (14210)6/24/2013 9:40:47 AM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
To: dealmakr who wrote (92275)6/24/2013 9:36:28 AM
From: John Pitera of 92813
Hi Deal... this was such an excellent post that I am back to comment on it again and recommend it -g-

Your statement is simply brilliant

Looking at the data available and doing some back of the envelope calculations, its pretty easy to see how things will turn out in some of these based upon trying to analysis on the cash flows just like when you are looking at how a private company is run. Even though they have the ability to raise revenue by taxation or fee increases in some cases the numbers just don't add up by actuarial standards in some of the more risky areas.

I just think that Meredith was early to the party and her warnings mostly fell upon deaf ears.
Meredith Whitney is the lightning-rod banking analyst who once shocked Wall Street and prompted a $40 billion sell-off. It's hard to believe she has ever been “intimidated ” by anything. But she was, she confessed, when she was first starting in the business.

Whitney rocked the financial world when, in 2007 at the age of 38, she predicted the mortgage bond bust. The Wall Street analyst wrote the most bearish of bearish reports on Citigroup and issued a timely - and what turned out to be prescient - outlook that the bank would be hard hit by the sub-prime mortgage meltdown.
The call shattered investor confidence in the bank and in the entire industry.

“I didn't think that people would care as much as they did. And I didn't think it would be the call that tripped the wires of the financial market,” she said. “I was hardly the toast of the town when I made the Citi call.”

It was the call that put her on the map and forced Citi’s CEO Chuck Prince out of his job.

“The day that it was released,” she said, “I had some pretty (bad) things said about me…and I wasn't used to that. I wasn't used to the attention. I think it just made me even more reclusive than I already am and more focused.”

That focus resulted in her being thrust back into the spotlight.

In December, 2010 in a widely watched “60 Minutes” interview, she made a call that some would call "alarmist". She predicted that 50 to 100 “sizable” defaults would occur in the nation’s towns, cities and counties. What frightened most investors was her timing: “It’ll be something to worry about within the next 12 months.” Investors pulled an estimated $25 billion from the municipal bond market over the next few months. To date, her call has proved to be wrong.

In her new book, “Fate of the States: The New Geography of American Prosperity,” Whitney tells her side of the story and continues to defend her call. “Muni bonds did increase 400 percent in 2011 to $25 billion from $5 billion in 2010...But for the record, I never said those fifty to a hundred defaults would all happen in 2011, which was how my critics spun the story.”

In an interview with “Off the Cuff,” a candid Whitney said, “I have moments of doubt all the time. What I love about this industry is…you get humbled multiple times a day.”
Now running her own firm, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC, she is bullish on the nation’s heartland. She says there is a “new map of prosperity'' emerging in the wake of the bust, with jobs and growth moving away from the coasts and toward states in the Midwest and Mountain West.

“What was clear to me was that the housing scars were so deep that they were going to affect different areas much more severely than others,” she said. Her new call: Don’t go West or head for the East Coast. Instead, she writes, move to places like Texas that offer more affordable housing, lower taxes and more economic growth.

As for running her own shop, she admits it’s a bit of an adjustment and has its challenges. “Working for yourself is not for everybody. But it gives you an incredible amount of freedom… managing is the single hardest part of the job, of anything.”

When she's not working, she savors her time with her husband, former professional wrestler John “Bradshaw” Layfield—known to his fans as the “Death Mask.” The two have been married since 2005. Whitney's accustomed to having her name in the financial papers and being on TV, but she says that she's out and about with her husband, she enjoys being upstaged. “Where we are on the weekends, people don't know who I am. And they don't care. But they know who he is. And they really do care. And it's fun,” she said.

Their romance began after she received some life-changing advice from none other than a New York City cabbie. “I had no idea how I started a conversation about my love life with a taxi driver. But…he said, ‘Figure out what you want, write a list. And you'll get it.’ And I wrote a list…I met exactly what I wanted—not in the packaging that I expected, but exactly in the quality that I expected. “

Now at 43, she said she’s very happy, with a great husband, a circle of close friends and a demanding job. Does s

he have it all?

“None of us think we have it all. You want to be really happy with what you have,” she said. “But then keep trying to do better.”

finance.yahoo.com




To: John Pitera who wrote (14210)6/24/2013 10:11:47 AM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
The SPX continues to decline and no one is concerned......treasury yields up to 2.61%..... the FED has lost control of the 10 year note yield...... MSCI global index is getting hammered...... JJP



To: John Pitera who wrote (14210)6/24/2013 11:24:52 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Mark Mobius: China's Problems as Big as US Subprime

BUSINESS NEWS

By: Jenny Cosgrave, Staff Writer
CNBC.com | Monday, 24 Jun 2013 | 7:04 AM ET

While China's housing market problems are similar in scale to those faced during the U.S. subprime mortgage bubble and its banks are rife with bad loans, it won't lead to another Lehman-style crash, Franklin Templeton's Mark Mobius told CNBC on Monday.

Mobius said the similarities could not be denied but since Chinese banks are owned by the government, they will not be allowed to fail.

( JJP Editorial note..... yes people, the Government will protect you from everything, they will provide for your every need......they will never lie to you and they certainly will not keep records of your phone calls or create databases of other data mining obtained personal info.... The Government will make sure you have a job, a very nice one that you completely enjoy.... and money to pay all of your bills and there will be 2 cars in the garage..... a nice fishing boat on your dock and you will be provided with unlimited Medical coverage by the worlds latest generation of New Doctors...... so there is nothing to worry about, as a matter of fact.... the government says lets just declare a general holiday and a bank Holiday until the July 4th weekend is over...... yes...after all the government whether here, China, Russia..... France, Spain, Greece.... they always get the job done and we have full faith in our great governments..... nothing to see here....move on and take time to smell the roses...... -vbg- {(I do apologize for my irony/parable/ tiny hint of skepticism)} .... John )

Investor fears have been heightened after a credit crunch last week led to a spike in yields on inter-bank loans. Some analysts have pointed out the credit crunch was spiked by China's central bank tightening liquidity, rather than a loss in confidence among banks.

Still, nervousness led to big drop in Chinese stocks on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite tumbling 5.3 percent to its lowest levels since early December.

"The perception of China is they are in the same kind of situation as the U.S., and yes it is true that a lot of loans are going to go bad, and that banks have been hiding a lot of these loans in so called trust companies," Mobius said on the sidelines of the FundForum conference of asset managers in Monaco.

"We have to ask what the consequence is, what will happen as a result, and the scenario will be very, very different in China, simply because the banks are controlled by the government, so they will not be allowed to go bankrupt."

As a result, Mobius said the liquidity problems faced by Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers at the height of the 2008 crisis won't happen in China.

Mobius manages some $53 billion in emerging market funds and has more money invested in China than in any other market. (editorial note by JJP....so he is talking his book.... protecting his assets )

(Read More: Goldman Joins Bandwagon, Downgrades China)

He said China has $3 trillion in foreign reserves which can be used to recapitalize the banks.

But not everyone agrees that China can make it through its current problems.

Gordon Chang, the author of "The Coming Collapse of China" told CNBC on Monday the credit crunch was a serious problem and could lead to a "catastrophic failure" in the banking system in the next six months.

"This is not so much as a liquidity crisis as a debt crisis," he told CNBC on Monday

---------------------------------------------

bingo...that is the correct answer....we have known that all the governments of the world have major structural debt structures... that in the words of Treasury Secretary... Timothy Geithner "are Unsustainable" every February for the past 3 years he has been up testifying to Congress and saying that the Budget Deficits and structural US Debt and it's status was Unsustainable.

JJP