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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45176)6/28/2013 7:39:07 PM
From: SwampDogg  Respond to of 48092
 
don't really see it that way
the panic of 2008 was recovered in a few months back to almost the lows of the previous topping pattern and right back in the range by the spring of 2009 ($44.10 on your chart)
that was a clear "V"
in the current market would mean a move back to 380 on the HUI in the next few months

GDX did exactly what one would expect in a 'C" wave
the difference between 2009 and now is that this would be a Wave 3 advance of high degree with more power than even the 'b' wave in 2009
today was a clue with its relentlessness
ABX news should cause short covering on that one on Monday



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45176)6/28/2013 7:45:25 PM
From: gold$10k  Respond to of 48092
 
<< After the final low, it took 2 years for GDX to get back to the 2008 highs.>>

54.18 in November 2009 is close enough for me... just 1 year later. The bottom was a double bottom with a month in between. IMO the best hope currently is for a late July re-test, but even a lower low could suffice EW-wise.

By contrast, it took gold only 3 or 4 months to get back to almost its 2008 highs, but it had not lost so large a percentage.




To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45176)6/28/2013 8:52:36 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Respond to of 48092
 
Gold Miners Trade Like Junk as Bullion Sinks Below $1,200:
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) (ABX) and Kinross Gold Corp. (K) are trading as if they’ve lost their investment-grade ratings after the price of the metal plunged 28 percent this year to the lowest since August 2010. Barrick’s implied bond rating has deteriorated to Ba1, the highest junk rating, Moody’s Corp. said yesterday. Moody’s Investors Service’s actual rating for Toronto-based Barrick, the world’s biggest gold miner, is an investment grade Baa2. Kinross, Canada’s third-largest producer, also had an implied rating of Ba1, versus an actual rating of Baa3. bloomberg.com

“We would expect that there would be several, if not many companies, who would also in the next reporting period be coming to a list of impairments,” Michael Elliott, sector leader for Ernst & Young LLP’s global mining practice, said in a phone interview from Sydney. “It’s just a question of timing, and who had the largest exposures.” bloomberg.com

Barrick May Take $5.5 Billion Writedown on Pascua-Lama bloomberg.com

Bullion must rise to $1,500 an ounce for the gold mining industry to be sustainable, according to Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)’s Chief Executive Officer Nick Holland. “The industry is not sustainable at $1,230 an ounce, which is where the gold price is at the moment,” Holland said today in a telephone interview. “We’re going to need at least $1,500 an ounce to sustain this industry in any reasonable form.” bloomberg.com

my comment: this is the type of news at industry bottoms.