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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (14240)	6/29/2013 2:36:42 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi AJ, Excellent post as always.... Housing has absolutely topped.... I was talking with my friends in the Mortgage industry... and they were have been bummed since back in Early May... I know the end of the month my old school buddy Brian Severin has been in the financial industry since the early 1990's and has been in the Mortgage business for over a decade in Houston ..... well I called him and he was telling me... Yea I just had to make a call that I have been putting off... they had a mortgage rate of 3,625% approved but due to a delay regarding getting clear title to an easement or some other technicality they had not closed on the house.... and then the 10 year note took off and the best rate moved almost overnight to 4 and 3/8th percent..... Now even the professionals on cnbc, the wsj, Bloomberg etc were still saying things were great and house prices are going up etc.. and so obviously even a very educated professional buying a million dollar property figures that he is having the old.... I give them a low quote and then switch it on them... no one except for people like Art Cashin, Rick Santelli, etc understood that rates were moving higher.... I have understood this all along and called the bottom when we broke above 1.75% on the 10 year note the very first time... even the folks at Pimco were positioned wrong and saw their investment in treasuries go down.... Since there are so many factors that go into the National Market for Mortgages... when prices move quickly even the professional media does not always report what is going on accurately as we have pretty sophisticated products.... very quick markets that move 24/7 and close down Friday afternoon and it's 8 AM in Sydney and the Global Currency and Interest rate markets... and thus all asset classes are back in play as of 3 or 4 PM on Sunday afternoon In East Coast time.... New Zealand which is really the first Market to open as it is 1 hour earlier than Sydney..... I learned the lesson very well... as I would the Guy at Bankers Trust who was reported to have made $300 million for Bankers Trust in 1987... made the front page of the WSJ as there was great debate on Wall street as to what kind of Bonus deserved.... He was trading FX... Long dated FX and FX Options which is interbank and very thin and so when you are running a book at a large money center bank.... you have huge wiggle room to assign values to your book and there is no one at the bank including the CEO and senior management that understand the nuances of these exotic products.....Andy Krieger was his name.. it just came to me..... Krieger read Sanskrit... and I was told used Hindu Astro Market timing techniques.... by another trader Tom Wallace who I learned about in Sydney when Tom was written up on the front page of the Australian Financial Review..in an article titled ":Bankers who trade by the light of the Moon..." it did not mention his name... but I was motivated enough to go over and talk to the head of bond trading at Bankers Trust in Sydney and he told me who the name of the trader in New York who was using Astro..... when I had to come back to New York from Sydney in 1987 I was able to met him and learned a tremendous amount from him... I was able to get him to meet Arch Crawford, Robert Colby, Bill Sarubi and Michael Jenkins who all knew each other and I am naturally a person who introduces people to other people.. Now Crawford, Sarubi and Bob Colby were all good friends but they did not know Tom Wallace or Henry Volquardsen I was fortunate enough to work at Citi with Henry he was in NY and I was in Sydney.. he was one of the greatest minds ever on Silicon Investor and I have wanted to compile his work into a litle Book That I have tentatively titled "The Consolidated Wisdom of Henry Volquardsen"...and I was fortunate enough to be able to spend time in group outing with all of them..... back to Andy Krieger....He was a really smart guy...trading at Bankers Trust... which was one of the very best in the world.... It was bought buy Deutsche Bank, which is one of the big 4 banks that control about half of the Worlds Currency Trading... Citi, UBS and a very large British Bank round out the list of the 4 big elephants that run Global FX.... enough history for tonight.... I will string all this together pretty soon by archiving posts in the thread head and also on either the GFA site or the Pitera Perspectives website.... John ----------------------------------------- Sanskrit ( pronunciation ( help· info);????????? sa?sk?tam [s?~sk??t??m], originally ???????? ???? sa?sk?ta vak, "refined speech") is a historical Indo-Aryan language, the primary liturgical language of Hinduism and a literary and scholarly language in Buddhism and Jainism. Today, it is listed as one of the 22 scheduled languages of India [3] and is an official language of the state of Uttarakhand. [4] Sanskrit holds a prominent position in Indo-European studies. The corpus of Sanskrit literature encompasses a rich tradition of poetry and drama as well as scientific, technical, philosophical and dharma texts. Sanskrit continues to be widely used as a ceremonial language in Hindu religious rituals and Buddhist practice in the forms of hymns and mantras. Spoken Sanskrit is still in use in some villages and a few traditional institutions in India, and there are many attempts at further popularisation.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (14240)	6/29/2013 1:17:33 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

here we have a candleglance view of 9 of the more significant currencies..... we are in very fast volitle markets ......and they have been uniformly selling off as the big asset collapse occurs.... John

To: ajtj99 who wrote (14240)	6/29/2013 1:17:33 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

here we have a candleglance view of 9 of the more significant currencies..... I have started off with the 1 year daily line chart and then we have a 2 month candle glance chart collection........ the CEW is a basket of Emerging Market currencies. and it has just collapsed into a Black hole since the beginning of May...... This was part of the reason that I was on the Houston George Bush Intercontinental American Airlines flight up to Chicago... on Sunday April 29th and ended up spending the bulk of the month of May in Chicago... When we get these dramatic moves in currencies and interest rates it causes massive revaluations and relative value Investment allocation decisions for all of the world's Major Pension Funds... Municple and College Endowments... all of the Big Global Asset Managers...... and the thing is ... that this is really just getting started.... This is like the bottom of the second inning in this Part of the Supercycle Degree Global Asset Picture..... what if we have a repeat of 2008 and this time the Central Banks can not control the long end of their yield curves.... and we see a rise in interest rates...... and the ten year goes to 4 and then 6%...... over the coming few quarters????? Stay tuned. we are in very fast volatile markets ......and they have been uniformly selling off as the big asset collapse occurs.... John