Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (14257)	7/1/2013 6:07:18 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I left out the ten year note yield : And Most critically the 10 year note yield hovering right at the key 2.50% level.... so far the increase in yield has looked very Elliott wave impulse type..... The market is caught on the wrong side..... we do have a gap to fill on the daily chart and you will notice that is right where it would bonds would be sold by technical sellers as it's the 21 Day Simple Moving Average and the 26 day Exponential MA... which is used in other trading systems those to converge right where the gap would be filled .... what wil really freak out the markets is if the TNX makes a new high in Yield above 2.61% prior to filling that GAP. since this is a Holliday week... we may not see much happen.... but Japan and China interest rate and currency developments as well as the weakness in the Indian currency, the Brazilian Real.. and emerging market currencies...and in Egypt we have major geopolitical uncertainty..... China, Russia and the US are in a turf war on multiple fronts and obviously the National Security Agency's Snowdon is providing friction...... Lots of developments occuring all over the globe. The Chinese Equity market has rallied but China has broken down from a major multi year triangle and the economy is imploding The Carnage continues here as the SPX opened on it's high and then the professional money managers came in and sold at the 50 Day Simple Moving Average..... The SPX actually closed 4 points below it's 21 simple DMA..... which shows that the Systems traders are running these markets.... Look at this SPX Fibonacci Chart and the moving averages: These are the kind of very Fast Global Markets where the real big time Global Asset Managers excell and clean up... making excellent returns...... I know several shops that have had some profit centers making outsized returns over the past 2 months..... Big Global Asset Managers like Goldman, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Blackrock..... and premier global Macro Hedge funds like Bruce Kovner's fund. Kovner was the second interview in the first market wizards book by Jack Schwager. 1) Bruce Stanley Kovner (born 1945 in Bronx, New York) is an American businessman. He is the founder and Chairman of Caxton Associates, a hedge fund that trades a global macro strategy and is considered amongst the worlds top and largest 10 hedge funds with an estimated $14 billion under management . [4] In March 2011, Kovner had an estimated net worth of around $4.5 billion. [5] Described as secretive even by family and friends, the divorcee is perhaps one of the least known New York City billionaires outside of professional circles. His Caxton Associates, despite the large amount of assets under management, is known to be amongst the top 25 most enigmatic and secretive hedge funds globally. [6] He is a leading philanthropist and former chairman of American Enterprise Institute. there are shops that are knocking the cover off the ball..much as John Paulson did in 2008 when he took his fund from a Billion and change up to 14 Billion by working with Goldman Sachs who let him personally handpick the most vulnerable tranches of Debt and bundle them into customized Credit Default Swaps and CDO's..... His funds hit their high water mark 6 or 9 months ago when they got up to $34 Billion and were still accepting new assets...... that seems to be a high water mark when you run money so publically.... The "Old Money" is very discrete and they have a very long time horizon... they make the future ... they do not react to it. I promise you life is not bad at the Rockerfeller Rothschild Family office..... but they are best of breed... Lets just toss in one more vantage point... Now the looking at an 10 Year Time Horizon... on the Weekly Ten Year Treasury Note Yield shows how we will hit the Blue downtrend line at 2.75%.... if we do manage to move up towards the 2.75-2.81 % level over the next several weeks..we should expect that to stem the rise in the 10 year note yield .... because at that point we will be seeing weaker equity prices globally and a recession occuring and so inflationary expectations will cool off and the It would be an exceptional place for big Bond Players like PIMCO to look to go Long bonds on a Quarterly to 6 month positioning basis. John Jacob Pitera