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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AlienTech who wrote (9187)	12/7/1997 3:34:00 AM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13456

Do ana-retentive-ists really do bawd things? Naw its against the law! Or so the old goats in this country think! eb-mag.com Market Analysis: Improving conditions in the semiconductor industry Here are some highlights of market trends based on the most recent semiconductor market data released in November by the Semiconductor Industry Association and the Cahners Economics forecast: eb-mag.com However, Europe is expected to grow more rapidly in 1998. Japan's struggling economy has semiconductors languishing at low levels as this sector fell to $2.80 billion. The Asia Pacific total remains healthy and continues to grow, but the average should pull back in Q4-97 as the regions currency problems begin to work themselves into the data.

To: AlienTech who wrote (9187)	12/7/1997 4:27:00 PM
From: Yakov Lurye	Respond to of 13456

AT, with SEA & especially Korean financing crunch semi manufacturers will spend less money on new fabs and more on line modernization. In a rational world, an accelerated transition to .25mu lithography means good growth for companies like SVGI, ASMLF and CYMI and should push these stocks up next year. Testers (TER, CMOS and LTXX) should also do well - as productivity increases, testing becomes the bottleneck (note, this is already happening to MU). However, even at the current low price levels for these stocks I see significant downside short-term risk under the following scenario: 1)semi-equip book-to-bill declines as Koreans postpone some new fabs; 2)analysts like Kurlack & Chaplinski use this to downgrade the sector again and cause another indiscriminant seloff; the fact that some companies are actually booked through 1999 will be ignored in the ensuing stampede. 3)once stock prices are driven down another 30% (that's Prudential's downside risk assessment for AMAT), funds load up; then the analyst crowd suddenly changes their tune. I am pretty sure that there will be another attempt to drive semis and semi-equips down - either before Christmas, or in February. Buying way out-of-money May-June calls at that time could prove very rewarding.... Good luck with your trades, Y.