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Non-Tech : Amati investors -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dovi who wrote (29748)	12/7/1997 10:18:00 AM
From: JW@KSC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31386

Dovi- [DSL technologies] I guess I don't share your enthusiasm for the DSL technologies. It seems that the street likes the deal and that is good for TXN, BUT do you really think that DSL is going to be the future? Isn't DSL just an attempt by the Baby Bells to keep their copper cage alive? With the increasing bandwidth of fiber optics and competition coming from all angles (@HOME,CVUS) I don't think DSL has a bright future. Hopefully TXN can make some good profits helping the Bells futile attempts! I bought TXN for DSP's and think there is huge growth there even without the DSL side of the business. Separate question---What percentage of TXN's DSP revenues come from DSP's in modems (3COM)? Thanks--Dovi Dovi, Perhaps this is because you have not spent the past 24 months studying the DSL Industry, and since this is your first post in the Amati Thread and only 13 posts on SI you have 4,379 post to go to catch up with Pat. No offense Dovi, just pointing out an important fact that 24 months of research is a lot, and with the aid of this thread and it's participants it makes for one heck of an education. I don't know how many threads on SI have over 30,000 posts, but I bet it's not many. Most of the current inroads in Fiber are for the backbone. The Telcos can only replace Copper with FTTC Fiber to the Curb at a rate of 7% per year, and this works out to only 4% real world as new copper is installed. One of the smartest men in the industry Ray Smith CEO of Bell Atlantic was quoted in Feb of 96: "Some see ADSL as a short term solution, and I agree, Short term for the next forty years." VDSL at 52Mb is the last mile soultion, it is cost effective to to run a single fiber to the neighborhood and have copper carry the load from a central point to the customer, rather than replace the entire Copper SpiderWeb in the neighborhood. As you state there will be many competing technologies. I myself own a chunk of CVUS. But having a cooper infrastructure in place with over 700 million lines world wide is a big advantage. I've written the above many time in the past in this thread, in much greater detail, and have lost my Archive of most of the information. But this should, I hope, give you a small idea of the potential for DSL. I don't know what percentage of TI's Revenues come from DSP's in modems, but 40% of their revenues come from DSP's, and that percentage will increase substantially as DSP's are poised to see the same growth and development in the next 10 years as Microprocessors have been done over the last decade. Regards, JW@KSC ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ (snip) Semiconductor revenues, including royalties from semiconductor licensees, now represent about 84 percent of TI's revenues. Digital signal processors plus mixed-signal/analog represent about 40 percent of semiconductor. Memory, made up primarily of dynamic random access memories (DRAMs), now accounts for about 20 percent of semiconductor. The remainder of semiconductor is made up primarily of a broad range of advanced products, including application specific integrated circuits, reduced-instruction set microprocessors, microcontrollers and standard logic. A recent report by market research firm Dataquest forecasts digital signal processing as the fastest growing product area in the semiconductor market. TI estimates the digital signal processing and related mixed-signal/analog market will grow more than tenfold to about $50 billion over the next ten years. TI is taking several actions to accelerate the growth of its digital signal processing solutions. Recent announcements include a $100 million venture fund to help seed the growth of new DSP applications, and $25 million for additional university research focused on DSP. In early September, TI formally opened the Kilby Center, the world's most advanced research center for silicon manufacturing. The facility will serve as the technology base for the ongoing creation of TI's leading edge DSP solutions. ti.com

To: Dovi who wrote (29748)	12/7/1997 2:21:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31386

[Old debate: cable vs. DSL] <<<Hopefully TXN can make some good profits helping the Bells futile attempts!>>> What makes you call the Bells' efforts "futile?" I would think it wise to give them another six months to a year to at least deploy before declaring their efforts a failure. <<<I bought TXN for DSP's and think there is huge growth there even without the DSL side of the business.>>> Judging from the words being spoken by TI's executives at recent conferences, they see networking as one of the four key drivers of the DSP market, and from their purchase of Amati, they obviously see DSL as an important component of that. The following clips are from Rick Goerner's presentation at the DMT Tech Conference in Laguna Niguel, CA, this past week. Rick is TI's Vice President, Semiconductor Group and President of thier Silicon Systems subsidiary. <<<. . . If we look at what is driving the growth, three factors are largely responsible: The need for bandwidth expansion - we're seeing this in the cellular market and in the explosive growth of networking - more bandwidth means more DSPs. . . . In wireless and modems we have a strong number two position and driving hard to be number one. We offer chip sets for all major components and are pushing the technology to a single-chip integrated DSP Solution. . . . The growth in the demand for DSPs today can be seen in four major market areas: wireless communications, networking, mass storage and mass market and new applications. All these markets hold great opportunity. However, no one market dominates DSP applications. No more than 25 percent of DSP demand comes from any single market segment. . . . Network connections in both the business and residential markets are projected to grow about 20 percent per year during the next three years. And every network connection - at both ends - will have a DSP Solution. TI's programmable DSP has reshaped the modem market. A little more than a year ago, all modems were hardwired. Today, more than half of modems shipped have completely programmable DSPs. Next year, some 90 percent will. That means that modem users are no longer at the mercy of the next generation of modem speeds that make their equipment obsolete. Thanks to TI's powerful line-up of DSPs, sales to modem manufacturers are expected to increase by more than 40 percent and LAN interconnects by 25 percent in 1998. . . . Performance Explosion Enables Information Download TI's focus on DSP Solutions was demonstrated once again last month when we strengthened our position in the networking market by acquiring Amati Communications. Amati is a world leader in digital modem or Digital Subscriber Line - DSL - technology which lets ordinary phone lines transmit data as much as 200 times faster than today's typical voiceband modems. . . . The Amati acquisition is one more example of TI's strategy of being where the market is going before competitors. . . .>>> You go on to ask: <<<What percentage of TXN's DSP revenues come from DSP's in modems (3COM)?<<< I'm not sure, but I do know they recently announced they'd shipped their 35 millionth chip to 3Com. How many chips do they ship in a year and how many years does this 35 million represent? I'll let you do the research. As for the old cable vs. telco argument, it's become like a broken record on this thread. If you're interested, there are 29,000 posts and I'd guess about 1 or 2% touch on the subject in one way or another. For telcos, offering highspeed bandwidth isn't just essential to gain customers for Internet connections but in the not too distant future they'll be losing voice customers to Internet telephony if they don't offer their own services. Do you think they'll lay down and die? Study GTE's strategy and you'll begin to understand how deadly serious they are in meeting the challenges of a digital world. The word "futile" doesn't enter my mind when I think of what telcos can do when they set their minds to it. Slow, yes. Methodical, yes. Thorough, yes. But not futile. When you find the TXN-COMS numbers, let me know. I'm curious, too. Regards, Pat

To: Dovi who wrote (29748)	12/7/1997 3:59:00 PM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31386

Dovi << BUT do you really think that DSL is going to be the future? >> Are you serious?? xDSL is the cheapest, fastest method for telecom. Cable is good where there is fibre. More expensive if you have to install fiber(even tho still not as good as xDSL because each customer is a node in a network. More users, slower speed). Wireless is limited in badwidth. You should read up on xDSL. If you have some telecom better than xDSL, we will all be interested. Post details and compare with xDSL. ratan