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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ivan solotaroff who wrote (8925)	12/7/1997 11:24:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79313

Hi Ivan, Thanks for your comments/advice. I can't help but wonder (so I must ask) what moniker your cigar smoking, currency trading compadre attaches to the PGDCEB and if it has been widely known for some time but somehow never been made available for public consumption (No ethnic restaurant jokes, please). Also, one more note; SCOP didn't ever do a 30% gap down. You'll have to avoid the signal days on those guys. I like the kitty list and have it on my last 45 min. of trading watch list. No signal day will go unnoticed with enough eyes on it. Doug R

To: ivan solotaroff who wrote (8925)	12/7/1997 5:58:00 PM
From: Esteban	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79313

Ivan, Here's the report on the PGDCEB study I've been doing, based on the principles outlined in my previous post to you.. ACTM: Signal on 11/7 would likely have resulted in an entry around 14 1/2 late on 11/7 and an exit on 11/13 near 15 1/4. There would have been a huge scare with a gap down below 13 at the open of 11/11, so with a mechanical stop set one would have been out at 14 or worse on 11/11. Personally, after an open price shock I wait for a rebound, and by 9:45 the price was already back up above 14 and never looked back. This day of 11/11 also constituted a new signal day. 11/19 established a new higher low, and the trendline drawn from the signal day through the 11/19 low was broken on 11/25 resulting in a wash or perhaps minimal gain. ACTM is still above the last signal day of 11/11 and at a new higher low. We should be monitoring it for an entry point now. TSEMF: Signal on 11/12 with probable entry price around 9 15/16 near the close. Probable exit on 11/24 with 5 minute trend broken unfortunately by a mornig gap down. Still likely exit at 10 3/8. This day turned out to be the higher low day so reentry on 11/25 near 10 1/2. Exit on 12/3 for a wash trade. The interesting note here, is that like SGI the higher low was too close to the signal low to draw an effective trendline. Therefore I used an intraday trendline again. Note that the results so far for TSEMF have been adversly affected by gaps down that broke the trendline resulting in low exit prices. Still not bad. We should be monitoring this one also for a phase 2 higher low. TRKN: Signal day on 12/2 with likely entry near the close at 2. Exit on 12/4 for a wash trade. This is another one that could be making higher or equal low for phase 2 on 12/5, or right now. PETD: Signal day on 11/19. Probable entry @ 6 1/16. Five min trend broken 11/21 @ 6 3/16. PETD makes new higher low on 11/24 starting phase 2. Entry on 11/25 @ 6 3/16. Trendline from signal low on 11/19 to 11/24 low is broken on 11/28. Probable exit @ 6 1/16. New signal day 12/4 with late afternoon entry around 5 11/16. Still holding, at the signal day low. Look to enter this one on Monday as it is at signal low. FAXX: Looks like it would have been very profitable, but no signals in the last 30 days for which I have intraday data. I think this one is played out as a PGDCEB with the original gap in 4/97 and two strong corrective bounces to it's credit. PETM: Again, very promising summer signals but none during the last 30 days. BOST: 2 day gap ending Oct. 31 does not meet strict rules (at least I don't think so ??) but I checked it out anyway, especially since it gapped down more recently. Signal 12/3 with entry near close at 7 3/16. Exit next day either at open @ 7 1/16 or if didn't sell opening gap, that afternoon at 7 3/16. This day of 12/4 became a new signal day, but the stock price was in freefall into and after the close so entry would be 12/5 @ 6 5/16. Still holding @ 7. SGI: Signal day 11/12 with probable entry @ 12 15/16. 5 minute trendline broken 11/18 with exit at 13 7/8. Next signal day 11/24 with entry @ 12 7/8. Exit next day at 13 1/8. New higher low established on 12/1 for start of phase 2. Entry at close at 13 9/16. Holding at 14 3/4. So, Ivan, this appears to be a very viable strategy. Real life results may have differed, but I like the overall picture. What has impressed me the most is that there have been no large losses in playing stocks that are in a downward spiral. This month of November for which I have the intraday data has not been a kind month for playing PGDCEBs as most of them have continued to make lower lows soon after the signal day. Maybe this is because with the general market selloff there are many attractive stocks available at apparently bargain prices, so there's a lot more canditates for bottom fishing than usual. One thing to consider in regard to your point about the biggest danger being further downside gaps, is that these stocks have already had huge downward gaps, so maybe that possibility is actually less than most stocks. That does appear to be the biggest and maybe only hazard when playing this method however. Strict exit points based on intraday trend breaks on or immediately after the signal day limits the other risks. For Monday ACTM, TSEMF, TRKN could give phase II signals (higher low than the signal day) later in the day. Thursday was a signal day for PETD and it is still in the buying zone for Monday morning. Food for thought at the very least. Esteban