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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (10745)	12/7/1997 2:50:00 PM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12298

Look back at : exchange2000.com It was posted on 03dec97. On 04dec97 we saw the new estimates out for APM. Funny, I think I saw several people on this thread excited about the new estimates that you have posted(which BTW are very appreciated -you seem to post them on every thread I'm interested in) If you actually take a close look a the new estimates, it's a downgrade of expectations(assuming these are the orig 2 Analysts) I was VERY excited about what I saw, for the shorts anyway. The new #s fall in line with what I said about the 1 ANALyst being WAY OFF base with his expectations. Before Friday we had 1 ANALyst at $3.00 FY98 and one @ $1.71. We now have Smith Barney at $1.71 and Salomon @ $1.70. What you just witnessed was the 98 expectations fell 38% on avg. This was one of the big reasons I shorted APM. If you look over the last 4 months, while the 98EPS expectations for APM have been plummeting(from $6+ down to <$2 now) you can see that the 98FPE has hovered at a fairly consistent level. The stock price has been dropping because the earnings expectations have been falling. Sure there is a general downward pressure on APM because of the uncertainty about their MR transition, but let's face it folks, stock price is generally driven by earnings(some mix of current, near future and long term expectations) We have just seen another earnings revision. The 98FPE for APM was 6.3 before, it's 8.7 now. It's important to look at your competitors as well. On the same day Smith Barney revised the RDRT estimates UPWARD. What does that tell you: exchange2000.com Will the stock price fall? Or has it already taken these #s into acct? Who knows, but If I had to bet $ one way or the other, you all know what I have chosen to do. todd BTW, I still believe that $1.71 for 98 will be almost impossible for APM. (That comment is pure speculation on my part. It is no way meant to be interpreted as fact or presented as one)