To: Dennis Roth who wrote (179445 ) 8/2/2013 6:37:24 AM From: Dennis Roth 2 RecommendationsRecommended By LoneClone WillW
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206114 Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)Great Scott--Wolfcamp A Delivers in Spades; Raise NAV and Target Price to $209 Our take: PXD began the year with a stated goal of significantly increasing its NAV by confirming 3 BBoe of resource potential across 6 stacked intervals in the Northern Midland Basin. PXD’s thesis that multiple zones could be highly prospective throughout its 800,000+ acre position is gaining significant transaction. While it’s still early days, we believe it is appropriate to give PXD NAV credit above acreage value given the consistent results of its initial 3 wells, offset operator tests, and historical vertical production. Given the potential prospectivity of up to 6 zones across its vast acreage position, there is clearly enough resource to support a meaningful horizontal drilling program in North Midland for years (and likely decades) to come. Reiterate Outperform and establishing a 12-month target price of $209 per share, which is at parity with our revised NAV. PXD’s initial A Bench well in Northern Midland is another resounding success, with no signs of communication between zones: The DL Hutt C #2H produced at 1,712 Boe/d over a 24-hr period with a 74% cut. The well was completed with a 30-stage hybrid frac over a perforated lateral of 7,380 feet. This is comparable to the DL Hutt C #1H, which was completed in the B interval at a 24-hour rate of 1,693 Boe/d (same lateral length of 7,380 foot frac). The wells were drilled approximately 700 feet apart and virtually parallel. 02 August 2013. 11 pages Download link on this page ====Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD) Q2’13 Wrap Up: Northern Wolfcamp A Well Takes Center Stage 31 July 2013 ¦ 20 pages ir.citi.com Q2’13 Bottom Line – Pioneer reported recurring Q2’13 EPS/CFPS of $1.10/$3.80, which was in line with our $1.11/$3.79 estimates and Street consensus of $1.12/$3.80. Total production of 176 MBOE/d was below our 178 MBOE/d forecast due to unanticipated ethane rejection which also negatively impacted NGL price realizations. But this was offset by slightly lower-than-projected total per-unit operating costs. Exceedingly Strong Northern Hz Wolfcamp A Well Results... – Results for the highly anticipated DL Hutt C #2H well targeting the Wolfcamp A zone in Midland County posted a peak 24-hr IP rate of 1,712 BOE/d (74% oil) with a 7,380 ft lateral length and 30-stage hybrid frac. Recall that the well is an offset to the DL Hutt Wolfcamp B zone well that was completed in January (see our May 2nd note). The result represents the first data point for the northern hz Wolfcamp A zone and compares favorably to the two Wolfcamp B wells previously released which also posted 24-hr peak IP rates of ~1,700 BOE/d (~75% oil) after normalizing for lateral lengths. Notably, production to date from all three hz wells is trending well above the 650 MBOE type curve. Pioneer does not intend to drill any more Wolfcamp A zone wells in H2’13 but instead now plans to appraise other prospective intervals in the play (see Figure 4). ...While The Southern Wolfcamp Continues To Deliver – 22 new hz Wolfcamp B interval wells in the southern JV area were placed on production during Q2 with peak 24-hour IP rates of up to ~1,000 BOE/d, which are largely in line with prior results.Lower-End Of 2013 Production Guidance Upped; Capex Unchanged – Full-year production guidance was adjusted to 177-181 MBOE/d from 175-181 MBOE/d due strong hz Wolfcamp and Eagle Ford performance which is expected to more than offset ongoing ethane rejection (2 MBOE/d negative impact in H2). We continue to forecast full-year production of 181 MBOE/d (~16% yr/yr uptick) driven by ~25% yr/yr liquids growth. For 2014/2015, we project total production growth of ~15%/16%. Meanwhile, the company reaffirmed its 2013 capital spending program of $3.0bn with total capital outlays in H1 of ~$1.5bn. We expect capital spending to be funded by our operating cash flow forecast of ~$2.2bn along with JV proceeds and credit facility availability.