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To: Ian@SI who wrote (1338)	12/7/1997 9:37:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 2946

<Papken may very well be quite happy with the current turn of events.> Interesting...so you think that its almost BETTER that DUV is being delayed because then SVGI will be ready...where as if everyone was jumping in now SVGI wouldnt be ready and would be left in the dust? DAK

To: Ian@SI who wrote (1338)	12/7/1997 10:05:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

Ian, PMFJI, but the capacity constraint point can't be overemphasized. Another factor here is competitive advantage... Don't the Japanese have the competivie advantage in the SEA countries, while SVGI has the competitive advantage at home? If that premise holds... then the next leap of logic (dangerous trick for me, I assure you) is: SVGI gets a larger share of the market going forward. Why? -- because the folks who would have bought steppers in the SEA region now can't get financing to put a new outhouse behind the old fab. If this situation remains intact for the next couple of years (as the analysts of the IMF forecast), then demand is going to have to be met by semi manufacturers in the more stable (read: USA) economies.. Logic still intact?... The Fabs in the USA, hopefully, have a better relationship with SVGI than other (read: Japanese) sources.... Conclusion: The negatives being slapped on SVGI might just be a little overdone, no? JMHO, of course... dlo "The Saintly One"