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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (14360)	7/17/2013 2:39:47 PM
From: ggersh	1 Recommendation Recommended By Pogeu Mahone Respond to of 33421

John, and that's why they influence everyone to buys stocks, Dow new ATH everyday on every news channel it, your bond losing 3/4's of it's value becomes the new normal... Living in London in the 90's was very reminiscent of these times as it seemed everyday the Italian Bond move was violent. In 1994 the Bund actually crashed from the 104 area down to the 80's in a 3 month period. Interesting times, how long they can make this stab at stability last is the question. ggersh

To: John Pitera who wrote (14360)	7/17/2013 4:49:13 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I know it will be a stellar event... and the weather in Newport should be excellent. Much bettter than better than that sweltering heat in N Y C, Philly and DC.. so is Goldman right and we are onward to 4% on the 10 TNX or as Jeff Rosenberg indicated on cnbc today, he feels we can stay under the 2.6% area... Ben B will give us guidance tomorrow. Now I know that duration and duration risk increase with virtually all bonds..... However, if you if you happen to have a client who has a boat load of deep discount bonds 30 year bonds.... the duration actually starts to fall after as you approach year 17 and move out to year 30........ The AUD/$ had a very exciting and important low on Friday and Monday... at .90 area... I am pretty confident it will be able to work it's way back to the 94 -95 cent area .... and suspect we will look ahead 6 months and see it heading towards parity...... ------------------------------------------------------------------------- (this was passed along to me) cool event:Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Partner of LandColt Capital LP, has been invited by Opal Financial Group to be a featured panel expert on current issues regarding hedge funds and fund of funds. Topics will include a drill-down of alternative investments, the role of hedge funds in portfolios, the ability to locate superior alternative managers, and a discussion about how tax rate changes are impacting allocation decisions. The presentation will be held Tuesday, July 23rd at 2:45. As part of the Private Wealth Series, the *Family Office/Private Wealth Management Forum* is Opal’s premier conference and the preeminent event in North America for high net worth individuals and family offices from around the world. Some of the most well established and senior Family offices, Private investors, money managers, and private wealth service providers from around the globe will return for three days of engaging discussions on the latest investment trends and soft issues surrounding this generation and future generations of families. The event will take place in historic Newport, Rhode Island, which is rich in history and wealth alike. The Private Wealth Conference will explore the challenges and opportunities associated with investing in emerging markets, alternative investments, real estate, direct energy, numerous other asset classes and will also address many of the softer issues related to the family office such as tax and regulation, asset protection, philanthropy, structuring a family office, and many more. LandColt Capital LP is a private account investment management firm located in Manhattan and Lewes, Delaware. The firm offers innovative asset management strategies for accredited investors and advisors. To learn more about investing with LandColt Capital LP, you are welcome to contact info@LandColtCapital.com or 212-308-7393. ------- for anyone who want to go to where it will be cool on July 23rd......

To: John Pitera who wrote (14360)	7/17/2013 9:30:50 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

last night on linked in I wrote: John Jacob Pitera @ GFA • Hi Guy... I will answer simply and directly..... to quote Samuel Clemens... there are lies, damned lies and statistics.... I can manipulate a data set by working with the starting and ending point to convince you of anything. example geometric versus Arithmetic averages: ...using geometric averages and if you start say at Nasdaq 5000 on March 10 of 2000... as the starting point of your data series.... and run the returns through Q 2 of 2013 you are going to show the Nasdaq composite index of having a negative return and it's going to make people never ever want to be in an asset class that is that 1) risky 2) has performed so abysmally. on page 128 of the 8 th addition of INVESTMENTS by Brodie, Kane and Marcus....I will quote the start of example 5.7: The geometric average in example 5..6 (.54%) is substantially less than the the arithmetic average (2.10%) . This discrepancy sometimes is a source of confusion. it arises from the asymmetrical effect of positive and negative rates of return on the terminal value of the portfolio observe the returns in the years 2002 (-.2210) and 2003 (.2869). the arithmetic average return over the 2 years is (-2210) + ,2869)/2 = .03295 (3.925%) HOWEVER: if you had invested $100 at the start of 2002, you would have only $77.90 at the end of the year....IN ORDER TO SIMPLY BREAK EVEN! you would then need to earn $21.10in 2003 wich would amount to a whopping return of 27.09 (21.10/77.90) ... why is such a large return needed to break even instead of the 21.10% you lost in 2002.... It's because you start the 2003 with a much smaller base. the smaller the base... the greater the return you need in subsequent periods just to break even. Ibbotson... which I studied a 400 page report online at Morgan Stanley ... uses the start of 1975 because it is the Lowest point the DJIA had been in well over 12 years. .. as a matter of fact if you invested in the SPX or the DJIA at the top of the 1942 to 1964 secular bull market... when we first neared the 1000 DJIA level... and used 1964 as your base year for a constant dollar ( due to the fact that because of the widespread price inflation of the late 1960's and 1970's.. by the time you got to the start of the Aug 1982 secular bull market you still would not have broken even today. Instead Ibbotson.... since they are selling just like everyone is ...(I am selling right now.... my skills as a trader, and an analyst someone who has seen how the system works and knows that the Global Flow of Funds and interest rate differentials and currency moves is the driving force behind the Bulge Bracket Global Asset Managers who know of these things and are able to structure there asset allocation blend and have greater information flows than others and generate superior ROI... Next time I will discuss fat tailed distributions and 5 6 and 8 standard deviation events occur John Btw. I notice is stocks is using our GFA proprietary indicators all of a sudden..... and was anyone else paying attention on CNBC today when one of the chief strategists used the expression terminal value I don't think I posted this here last night.