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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (52938)	7/17/2013 11:19:01 PM
From: Fintas	3 Recommendations Recommended By Blasher The Ox toccodolce Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218840

I don't ignore any data point. I usually discuss it or post it somewhere. Yet it is never ignored. I'm trained to not ignore data. So yes the bell curve could be shifing left and then right and a spx number not hit. YET. The larger picture would be to understand where each sector is and where each of the seven indicators I track are. I usually only mention a few. NOW the reason I give forcasts down and for those with good memories I did the SAME UP as we were moving from late 2009 UP..Is that it works in both directions. The LOW for the avg was in 2008 at 3 ish. YET the LOWS for the spx was in 2009 and the avg was in the 9's. It had bounced from the 3's to the 15 ish and then more selling to bring spx down to the 675. What that showed was an avg DID NOT make a new low but the index did.. And why I have stated although I see a retracement for spx most do not see I do NOT expect the bell curve avg to go to the lows of 3 or 9 or 16. IF I DID I would have to adjust the spx LOWER. But I do NOT! The reason I will adjust forecsts from a 45/40 to now 35 is because each time we have tried to resolve the bottom buying has come in but that buying is due to other than FA. As we move along and the underlying problems of this economy, the debt, europe, asia, south america more selling will occur and as a result instead of stopping at 1550 or 1458 it will go lower and as it does the avg of sectors will drop. NOT ALL sectors will drop. SOME will remain in the 60-70 but the majority will cause the bell curve avg to go lower and many a stock will see a healthy correction. I have presented a list of stocks and sectors that I expect to roll left. I began doing that as many sectors were in the 80-90 and presented it on one of the boards. AS time is passing hat is playing out except many think the bounces are enough to stop the process. Unfortunately too many supporting indicators do not support such. If anything they suggest because they were not unwound the downside hit is ever more probable. GOLD going UNDER 1220 is a classic example And in the future GOLD will go under it's recent lows. I have NO positon in GOLD. However it is what it is That is what happened with PM. TOO FAR RIGHT and many were caught buying versus recognizing the sector was going to ROLL LEFT and even thogh it bounced along with PM price the DOWN would go further than expected. HERE and NOW re PM many forget bottoms are MADE PM's is still unresolved but is in the process of having a bottom being made. DITTO APPLE It takes TIME Now yes you asked me to put up that info. The reason I didn't is because it is WORK.It is HARD and It takes time. As a brain patient it is challenging. For those who want access simply subscribe to a service that provides. I have stated I use Dorsey. If one were to do that and then do the layovers and comparisons of many dates they would better understand the process. And it would be much easier to discuss. apples to apples That's the best I can do at this moment. I'm tired and need to rest. Too many forget TOPS are made as well as bottoms. While they are being formed and a stock or a spx appears to be making a high, retesting a high all to often the stock or an indes is FAILING and when that happens what one saw with SPX back in 2007 occurs or MER at 90, or GOLD at 1917 ish or APPLE at 707 ish. My work is to anticipate and exploit. Here and now I hold ALL CORE but I see the opportunity to exploit the SPX, SPY DOWN with REALISTIC TIMELINE and target. One more thing TOO many here me say a number as in BAC is going to 25 and in THEIR minds they think 2012 or 2013 yet in my mind it's 2015/2016.while that plays out there are many ways to participate with a bac, jpm or sector. Sometimes it's easier to ask then assume. I NEVER SAID SPX would have a significant sell off by this summer. What I have done is present a down side number while also recognizing upside. My work allows me to exploit One mans drop in INTC is anothers mans opportuntity to buy a CALL leap when the numbers work. Until, IMHO and now I go silent.. SORRY for the errors they take too much time to correct. Fintas