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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (3194)	12/7/1997 5:13:00 PM
From: biodoc	Respond to of 6136

Pardon me for trying to answer this question, but there may be several possible reasons why the full story doesn't come out in a press release or in a meeting presentation: (these are all speculations based on experience) 1) The number of patients in each dose group alone may be too small to be very confident about the percent "undetectable" in the individual group. Having to go back on a good number later could be more of a problem than not giving it up front. 2) It may be reserved for initial presentation in a peer-reviewed journal. 3) A desire to keep real and potential competitors guessing may preclude giving out any more information than the minimum required by SEC for disclosure. 4) And, of course, maybe the results aren't so good. Time will tell.

To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (3194)	12/7/1997 8:29:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Respond to of 6136

If the results were so good, what happened to VRTX stock??? Also if you look at the SD tribune story, what the VRTX CEO says about a superior side effect profile does not support the clinical data on side effects by his companies own admission. BID for Viracept and the other PIs will already be in use by the time VRTX gets to mkt if it gets to mkt, so the dosing advantage that all josh would wants us to believe is already faklse as is the cross-resistance issue. I just don;t see this drug being a major player at this time, even if it does turn out to be equivalent to Viracept (which the data already disproves- which has caused VRTX stock to go down, but it did not make AGPH go up). The most optimistic perspective is, that there will be a palce for VRTX in this PI mkt if they can get the drug approved, IMHO I think they will in mid to late 99. If I had any money left and AGPH was still in the mid-high 50s I would buy some VRTX also. I think it is pre-mature to start the canabalism by good all josh at this time. The PI mkt could approach 5 billion in 2000, excess of that if dual PI therapy becomes standard which IMHO it will be, and then it would be wise to have been bullish long term on VRTX and AGPH. However would I buy VRTX tommorrow, no! Because the real runnup in the stock ( if the data at the higher doses greatly improves and it looks like VX-478 has the potential at being at least equivalent to nelfvinavir) will be the same pattern as we saw with AGPH, we still have lots of time to play VRTX if they can come up with more compelling data. Now if you look at the current situation with AGPH, and compare the market cap of AGPH and VRTX (or 95% of other biotechs for that matter), AGPH is a screaming buy. Unless you don't want to own a profiatble biotech. 97% of the industry still are not profitable except the well known-house hold names (Amgen, etc...) I hope no one was stupid enough to get scared out by the same old stories as this summer when we hit the same price levels (58-62) only to rebound to $113 (56 1/2) a few months later.

To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (3194)	12/7/1997 8:39:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Respond to of 6136

Subject: Re: Intelligent discussion on Japan Tobacco? Date: Sun, Dec 7, 1997 20:12 EST From: JWhite6892 Message-id: <19971208011201.UAA08249@ladder02.news.aol.com> Lets examine the partnership with Japan Tobacco. First of all, the relationship seems much better than Roche in that, JT provided a lot of clinical support and a few bucks for the development of Viracept. More importantly, they have profited in a big way from their initial investment. I am sure now, that JT is very happy with their investment. Now if we consider also that besides the cancer research that Roche was supposed to pay, JT has committed quite a bit for the development and profit sharing of AGPHs most promising revenue drugs with exception of the GART and MMP inhibitors. Just after a few months on the mkt, JTs royalties make their partnership with Agouron for the next 5 yrs risk free, in that the money that they will provide for R&D of the viral blockbusters has already been exceeded by the royalties that have been paid. Nice position for JT. I am sure the last thing JT wants is for their partner to go under or fall behind with the competition that is trying to catch up with AGPH on blockbusters like a Hepatitis C PI (that recently Chiron-Arris-and Big Pharma sugardaddy have announced development of because the mkt is huge). I am sure JT also wants a piece of the action of the cure for the common cold receives the medi attention and the the streets attention. Remember when the first HIV PI in pediatric form was approved by the FDA (Viracept), JT was quick to announce their association with this pharmaceutical milestone, this puts JTs pharmaceutical division considerable clout in the world mkt. Jt like most Tobacco companies, is knee deep in cash and would be very intersted in branching the drug division into the global forefront as they did with this HIV PI. Can you think of a better place to put cash in for JT, compared to what they already have gained from Viracept. I do not know how the future with JT will turn out for sure. But I am sure they took notice of the Roche departure. It would make good business sense for JT to take over the ROCHE deals and further tie their dependent interrelationship with Agouron, besides getting a major foot in the door for Cancer Therapy. I am also relatively confident that the departure of Roche was received well by JT. Agouron is more theirs now. Lets assume a possibility. Jt starts buying more shares of Agouron at these levels, until it gets noticed and reported and then announces that they will take an x% of the company and will replace Roche in the partnership deal with AGPH, further joining JT and Agouron, and being quite profitable immediately for JT because the price would be pressured to new highs as the shorts would have to scramble out even faster now. (they really are running out of the same lies, people are starting to figure this out like , oh I don't know, George Soros. Also think if Soros would increase his stake in AGPH at these levels from 2.2% to 5%, the news alone would flush out this huge short position and make George another quick score. This type of short flushing is not rare and Agouron is a prime candidate for this type of play. I think it would make more sense for JT to acquire AGPH, but Peter Johnson is set to make Agouron the next Amgen and I feel he and the board have no inclination to sell out.