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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Najib Mehanna who wrote (6229)	12/7/1997 9:15:00 PM
From: James Berg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

I believe that AOL will go to 40 and lower, it's only a matter of time... The only way you will be able to keep the $17 you've made on AOL is to sell within the next few weeks. This market is a huge speculative bubble and AOL is just one of the large bubbles contained within it. --James

To: Najib Mehanna who wrote (6229)	12/8/1997 12:21:00 AM
From: Brent D. Beal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

I don't mind people making money and it isn't anything personal with me about AOL. Right now it's a bigger idiot play and I hope you sell before you end up being the last idiot left holding the bag. I made some money right after earnings with some puts, then I lost some money, then I made a few dollars on some calls, but got out quick (every once in a while even I like playing the bigger idiot game)--all in all, I'm just a little over even on AOL over the last 3 months. I'm thinking about some puts at the moment, but I think it may run a little more so I may hold off. I'll make the same bet I made with some other irrationally exuberent AOL investor--let's see where this thing is in 6 months (now five months). I'll give you even odds it's under 40. . . The fact that the BusinessWeek deal moved this stock up just shows how ridiculous things have gotten. Here's how I see it. BusinessWeek wanted to start charging some of it's customers, so they found a way to discrimate between those logging onto their cite. What this actually demonstrates is that firms can make money operating their own cites--they don't have to go through a middle man (i.e. AOL) to do it. Now, let's think about what AOL got. They can now say, "Hey, don't leave, look, we've got BusinessWeek." Looks awfully defensive to me. And how much to you think BusinessWeek is paying AOL? In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if AOL were paying BusinessWeek. Either way you slice it, this isn't good news for AOL is you stop to think about it for more that two seconds. Oh, well. . . Congrats on your 17 points. I hope you convert them to something other than paper profits before they go poof. See ya at 40.