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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (179634)	7/23/2013 7:50:27 PM
From: Bearcatbob	1 Recommendation Recommended By Brian Sullivan Respond to of 206087

Truly impressive. Too bad some think they are ruining the planet. Of course not me.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (179634)	8/1/2013 6:14:54 AM
From: Dennis Roth	3 Recommendations Recommended By Brian Sullivan Jacob Snyder LoneClone Respond to of 206087

Suncor Energy (SU.TO) 31 July 2013 doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com Q2 Operating EPS In Line SU has reported operating EPS of C$0.62 for Q2, in line with consensus of C$0.62, based on a company survey, and our C$0.63 estimate. SU currently trades at 5.0x 2014E EBIDAX vs. 6.3x for its North American integrated peers. We continue to rate SU Outperform for its sustainable growth profile and its increasing return of cash to shareholders.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (179634)	8/9/2013 6:58:32 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	7 Recommendations Recommended By Bruce L Bwana Jim Dennis Roth diana g donc and 2 more members Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206087

Why I'm not investing in IOC: First, I do believe IOC has the gas they claim, and potentially a lot more in undrilled areas. I also believe there will be a LT uptrend in natgas use globally. Reasons: 1. LNG requires large capex and many years to complete a build-out. In order to make good profits, a company has to correctly guess the supply/demand balance many years in the future, and this is inherently difficult. Guess wrong, and you've wasted billions in capex which can't be recovered. I've seen, in other industries, how even the most knowledgeable people can guess very wrong about future supply/demand (and hence price). This makes LNG more risky than other industries. 2. LNG demand may be much less than expected, if China, India, and Latin America develop their own domestic shale geology, using the same technology pioneered in the U.S. All these nations have a powerful interest in replacing imports with domestic production. 3. Longterm, China and India are probably the two biggest markets for LNG. Both those nations have a land connection with nations possessing huge gas resources (Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran). Russia could build under-sea gas pipelines to Japan and Korea (like the Libya-to-Italy pipelines). LNG will always be a more expensive way to transport gas than pipelines. LNG will always be every nation's third choice for getting gas , after domestic sources and pipelines. 4. Too many nations and companies may jump on the LNG bandwagon. There is a lot of stranded and low-cost gas out there, in a list of countries. It may easily become a price war, with LNG sold at unprofitable prices, just to try and recover some of the huge sunk costs. 5. PNG is politically immature, in the same category as Argentina and Nigeria. At any moment, a radical change in the government could chop IOC stock in half, or worse. Resource nationalism is one of the powerful LT trends in modern global politics. There is a LT trend, for poor nations to nationalize energy resources. So, it makes sense, given all the other risks, that LNG exports will be dominated by politically stable nations, like the U.S., Canada, and Australia. Nations where companies don't have to worry about coups or nationalizations have lots of exportable gas, so there is no need to take the risk of an Angola, Algeria, or PNG. When China and India are signing up for LT LNG contracts, they will prefer stable over unstable sources.