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To: Ginko who wrote (11161)	12/7/1997 9:01:00 PM
From: Apple12	Respond to of 25960

May be of Interest. Issues Within The Semiconductor Equipment And Materials Industry The semiconductor equipment and materials industry, which supplies the enabling technology and processes used in the manufacture of semiconductors, is currently a $65-billion a year industry and will continue as one of the key technical and economic drivers into the next century Headline: Semiconductors: PANIC Author: Michael A. Gumport, CFA 1(212)526-5368 Company: AMD,ALSC,AVT,CYRX,IDTI,INTC,IRF,LSI,MU,NSM,PIXT,RMTR,STM,TXN,XLNX Country: IND CUS Industry: SEMICO Ticker : Today's Date : 12/03/97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *EPS CALENDAR ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PANIC. The chip industry remains in a deceleration mode: Unit growth of +35% last July was +27% in September (the latest data); expect it at 10-20% before reaccelerating and stabilizing at +20% in early 1998. Surely, there have been some disappointments in 1997, most notably the failure of DVD and digital cameras to launch large and fast enough. BUT THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A PERIOD WHEN US CHIP MAKERS' DOMESTIC ORDERS DIFFERED DRAMATICALLY FROM THEIR WORLDWIDE TOTAL ORDERS, AND THE RULE OF THUMB IS THAT US CHIP ORDERS = 10X INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. WITH US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOW 5.5% ABOVE LAST YEAR, WE SEE A VERY CONSTRUCTIVE MARKET FOR CHIP CONSUMPTION. 1998 SHOULD BE A STRONG YEAR FOR DIGITAL CONSUMER PRODUCTS, AND WE BELIEVE FEAR OF EPS SHORTFALLS IS NOW OVERDONE.