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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Humblefrank who wrote (24433)	12/7/1997 10:47:00 PM
From: dath	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

On friday I tried to order a top of the line Dell(300,8.3 hard drive dvd etc...) and was told that they would not even be able to ship it until Jan 6th. Now either this means that they are having problems with their suppliers(bearish) or they are so back logged on their high end(read high profit) machines that they need a month to supply one. Overall I think that this is a bullish case for the high profit boxes

To: Humblefrank who wrote (24433)	12/7/1997 10:54:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Way off. I reaserach constantly because I develop this technology for a living and work closely with marketing and their research. Basic math does not escape me... another 10 fold increase for Dell aint in the cards. High end PC's, low end PC's, STB's, Camcorders, TV's all have their place. They do have differences and those differences will become even greater in the next few years. Here are the stats. 230 million TV's in america all of which will have to be replaced OR, a STB will have to be purchased just to enjoy digital TV. "Jupiter Communications predicts that it will take until the year 2002 for TV-based access devices to earn real market share--that is, 12.7 million households, or 22 percent of the consumer online market, using Net TVs." By this time, IDC predicts that 70% of the homes will have at least 1 PC, almost double todays penetration rate. With a STB, you'll be able to Web surf, email, perform basic word processing, play games, watch 600 channels of content and control your entire entertainment center. There is a colossal market here, a higher volume potential than the PC no doubt but penetration will be slow until manufacturers figure out what features consumers want. There is currently a lack of standards. Your argument is then, "home consumers" are going to be less enthusiastic about PC's because STB's will perform a majority of the really necessary functions brain-dead couch potatos care for. Maybe, but those folks don't have a PC today anyway. My argument is they will be seperate and distinct platforms and us consumers, like always, will have to have 2 of each at a minimum. Futhermore, STB's wont be able to do it all for less money. I remember when they first started integrating VCR's into the TV set. Why do we still insist on buying them seperately? Why do we by cameras and camcorders? Why do we have microwaves and ovens? Why do we have vacume cleaners, carpet shampooers and dust busters? Why must we have a sport sedan and a SUV? Why must we have socket wrenches, box wrenches, pliers and vise grips? All of these things are similar and can perform the same basic tasks. The point is they are specialized. You are probably one of those who thought that the ThighMaster was going to put World's GYM out of business. Right?<ggg> As for Apple and DEC in my portfolio... what, are you crazy? Technology innovators are the sacraficial lambs of the industry. I've written many a post on superior technology loosing out. Also, the definition of a high end PC is transient by nature and they have never dominated. Don't you do any research? Price points have been falling since day one and continue to do so. Now to go off in the sub-zero weeds... What always has dominated is the best value on the price/performance curve. The price extremes represent neither. Try this. Go into any Circuit City, Best Buy etc. Look at any of their product catagories. There are options ranging from a stripped down unexciting base model to the high end all the bells-and-whistels model. Take camcorders for instance that range in price from $500 to $1500. It's no accident that the vast majority sell right at the $1000 price point. It's the same for all eletronics, appliances, automobiles... the list goes on. The same will continue to be true for PC's. MEATHEAD