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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (51949)	7/28/2013 8:07:56 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78536

I have owned CAP off and on in the past. The chart broke down with the general global slowdown; probably the China growth fears. I decided to stay out until they report on Tuesday and see if they miss and/or warn going forward. If they do the stock will be back in the teens. Could be a really good buy there depending on the outlook. It's clearly a cyclical global growth play - "risk on" only.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (51949)	7/28/2013 11:00:19 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78536

FreightCar America Inc. (NasdaqGS: RAIL) Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRN) Textainer Group Holdings Limited (NYSE: TGH) CAI International Inc. (NYSE: CAP) TAL International Group, Inc. (NYSE: TAL) Hi Paul - I maintain a watch list I call "Shipping Container" that I created over 18 months ago. My premise was these companies generated good cash flow from the leasing of their containers/rail cars and the value proposition was if the companies were not too levered and had a growing customer base, you could buy these if/when they traded near their 52wk lows assuming that the geographical market(s) they served were expected to grow. I continue to be bullish on the U.S. domestic market and now a bit more positive on Europe. India will continue to do well but Brazil and China probably will remain flat. You typically can buy these container companies at a PE of 10 or less but RAIL has always traded at a premium and at least since I have watched the company tends to have the largest earnings fluctuations (ie losses and/or marginal gains). I have a GTC order in for TAL but it is at $33.00/share (last $39.49/share). TAL continues to be my favorite long term play based on my review last year. BOX is off my list as they were bought out late last year and I moved the proceeds into TGH . Here are two posts I did for TAL. Their story continues to be bullish and is my favorite of the group at the right price: Message 28857223 Message 28631694 RAIL is near it's 52 wk lows and may be worth starting a small position. Therefore, maybe I will move up my GTC buy on TAL to $35.00/share and perhaps start a small speculative position in RAIL. I still hold a small starter position in TGH that I bought 12/2012 @ $30.86/share (last $34.11/share). I did add CAP to my watch list but excluded it because (1) it pays no dividend and (2) they have too much debt when compared to their annual net income (15x annual net income/ long term debt 65Mln/1.04Bln). CAP sells for 1.3x BV vs RAIL at 1x BV. So on a BV basis it may be getting cheap but I still like TAL for their long term earnings history. TAL's GN is $44.00/share and sells at a 11$ discount to that value. I still think I can buy it around $35.00/share which would be a 20% discount to it's GN which provides a very nice risk/reward trade. EKS