Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (51961)	7/31/2013 12:01:03 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78749

Yeah, I agree that POT/MOS don't look cheap in current environment. I usually don't like to timing-dump, so I probably won't sell my CF/MOS positions. But I won't add here either. I did sell some CF today and I may change my mind regarding the rest without notice. :)

To: Spekulatius who wrote (51961)	7/31/2013 2:05:04 AM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Recommended By Jurgis Bekepuris Respond to of 78749

I read Uralkali's 2012 annual report. This is the company that started the whole thing today. They increased their capacity from 10.6M tons to 11.5M tons in 2011 and are expanding to 13M tons in 2013, even though they only sold 9.1M tons in 2012. Production cost is 62$/ton, so they won't go out of business selling at 300$/tons at all. This makes me think that this decision announced today did not happen on a whim, there is a long term plan behind it, namely grabbing market share. Otherwise the capacity buildout that has been underway for two years already would not make any sense. My logical conclusion is that this may not blow over and a price war could be for real, rather than being an empty threat. They have the capacity and cost structure to follow through, without getting hurt too badly themselves. uralkali.com (p. 52)